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FPL tips: Brighton and Leeds unlucky to lose, and Harry Kane is back

Newcastle United v Brighton and Hove Albion – Premier League – St. James’ Park
(Image credit: Richard Sellers)

Results don’t always tell the full story, and two Premier League clubs can certainly feel unlucky not to take at least a point from their gameweek 28 fixtures.

Threat is a metric introduced by the FPL to measure the quality of the opportunities a player enjoys in front of goal, with a score of around 100 usually accounting for a goal’s worth of chances.

By totalling the Threat scores of an entire team it is possible to see how much Threat a team scored and conceded in any given game.

And based on the GW28 data, Brighton and Leeds were particularly unfortunate not to get anything from their weekend fixtures.

Undeserved defeats

A graphic showing the Threat scored and conceded by Premier League teams in the first round of gameweek 28 fixtures

Defeats for Brighton and Leeds might not seem particularly unusual, but their performances warranted much more.

Both teams registered their highest Threat scores of the season in GW28 (281 for Brighton against Newcastle and 258 for Leeds against Leicester) while they conceded 133 and 112 respectively.

Such underlying data would suggest 2-1 or even 3-1 wins would have been reflective results, but instead the Seagulls lost 2-1 while Leeds fell to a 1-0 defeat.

Wins were desperately needed for both teams. Graham Potter’s side have lost four games in a row now, with Liverpool, Tottenham and Arsenal soon to come.

Leeds meanwhile have lost five in a row and conceded 18 goals in that time – they have the worst defensive record in the league and their last win came in mid January, almost two months ago.

Brighton and Hove Albion captain Lewis Dunk and Newcastle United captain Jonjo Shelvey shake hands whilst wearing their yellow and blue captains armbands to show support for Ukraine during the Premier League match at St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne. Picture date: Saturday March 5, 2022

(Richard Sellers/PA)

For Brighton, defender Lewis Dunk was the surprise Threat leader against the Magpies, with a score of 104 hammering his previous best of 24 this term.

The £4.8m centre back missed a number of games in December and January with a knee injury, but managed a consolation goal against Newcastle for seven FPL points.

At Leeds, midfielder Raphinha leads the way this season with 698 Threat, while his score of 65 against the Foxes hints at a player who remains busy in the attacking third.

Better news for Leeds and Raphinha is that they face Aston Villa, Norwich, Wolves, Southampton and Watford next – could the £6.5m Brazilian winger fill his boots in that period and help his side avoid relegation?

Return of the Kane

Tottenham Hotspur’s Harry Kane scores their side’s fifth goal of the game during the Premier League match at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London. Picture date: Monday March 7, 2022

(Adam Davy/PA)

While Brighton and Leeds did not get the results they deserved, Tottenham’s Harry Kane is starting to deliver after a rich period of Threat scores.

The England forward has endured a difficult season but looks to be finding his feet as the business end of the campaign approaches, with five goals and one assist in his last four games.

In that time the £12.3m forward has returned 39 FPL points at almost 10 a game, and now has more than 100 FPL points for the season.

This form comes off the back of a number of impressive Threat scores, with Kane having registered three scores of 100 or more in his last 12 appearances.

After Spurs face Manchester United, their fixture list includes games against Brighton, West Ham, Newcastle and Aston Villa next. Is it time to board the Kane train at last?

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