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FPL tips: Ominous Liverpool hammer Arsenal in goals and data

Liverpool v Arsenal – Premier League – Anfield
(Image credit: Peter Byrne)

Liverpool’s winning margin against Arsenal was impressive enough, but the underlying data behind their performance was equally ominous for their Premier League rivals.

Threat is a metric introduced by the FPL to measure the quality of the chances a player enjoys in front of goal, with a score of around 100 usually accounting for a goal’s worth of chances.

By looking at how much Threat a team scored and allowed during a game, one can better understand whether their result aligned with the strength of their performance.

And Liverpool were not the only team to underline an impressive result with a dominant statistical display this weekend.

A graphic showing the amount of Threat scored and conceded by Premier League teams in gameweek 12 of the season

Red blurs

Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah scores their side’s third goal of the game during the Premier League match at Anfield, Liverpool. Picture date: Saturday November 20, 2021

(Peter Byrne/PA)

After a draw against Brighton and a defeat against West Ham, Liverpool delivered a sharp reminder to FPL bosses and English football that they are the real deal.

A 4-0 win against an in-form Arsenal side saw the Reds score 366 Threat to the Gunners’ 71, a convincing display and well worth the three points.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (15 points), Sadio Mane (12), Diogo Jota (eight) and Mohamed Salah (eight) all registered impressive returns, while a handful of Jurgen Klopp’s players added six points to their totals.

Salah sits top of the tree this season, however, with 125 FPL points in just 12 gameweeks – the Egyptian has scored just under a quarter of Liverpool’s total Threat this season, while he has registered six double-figure points returns so far.

Anfield’s star man has the highest Threat score in the Premier League (866), more than 150 clear of his nearest rival, while he has failed to deliver at least one goal or one assist in just one game.

The league’s third-placed side have the best attacking record in the division, and their upcoming fixtures look straightforward – they don’t face a game ranked higher than three out of five on the FPL’s fixture difficulty rating until 2022.

There are no sure things in fantasy football, but getting as many Reds in your side as possible looks to be a wise course.

Happy Hornets

Watford’s Emmanuel Dennis (right) celebrates scoring their side’s fourth goal of the game with team-mates during the Premier League match at Vicarage Road, Watford. Picture date: Saturday November 20, 2021

(John Walton/PA)

Claudio Ranieri’s Watford side have delivered a range of performances in just a handful of games, none more surprising or impressive than their 4-1 win against Manchester United in gameweek 12.

The Hornets were good for the three points too, with 276 Threat to United’s 126 at Vicarage Road.

And it was the forwards who delivered for the home side – Joshua King registering the most Threat for his team (98) and returning a goal for his small ownership.

Bargain favourite Emmanuel Dennis, meanwhile, scored one and assisted two to deliver 14 FPL points for those who have stuck with him.

Watford’s Emmanuel Dennis (left) celebrates scoring their side’s fourth goal of the game as Manchester United goalkeeper David de Gea looks frustrated during the Premier League match at Vicarage Road, Watford. Picture date: Saturday November 20, 2021

(John Walton/PA)

Dennis – who ranks in the top 10 for Creativity and Threat among forwards this season – has four goals and five assists now, and has delivered three double-figure scores despite his low value (£5.2m).

And while substitute Joao Pedro might have only played 13 minutes this weekend, he used that time to get on the scoresheet, registering seven FPL points and becoming the third goalscoring Hornet forward in the game.

Manchester United’s Cristiano Ronaldo, meanwhile, managed an assist to take him to four goals and two assists for the season – his £12.4m value and 30 per cent ownership will demand more from the striker.