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England beat Croatia emphatically in their first match of World Cup 2026, with a stunning second half performance to send a clear statement to the rest of the world.
Sorry, but we're going to be those insufferable people getting way ahead of ourselves by assuming that after one game, it's suddenly coming home.
But if England really are to win World Cup 2026, who will they face in the next round… and the round after that… and after that…?
Last-32
Second Round: A third-placed team (at the moment, Portugal)
The winner of Group L faces a third-placed side from Group E, H, I, J, K – but out of the 495 possible mathematical combinations for which third-placed teams advance, FIFA's structural path dictates a specific rule: If a third-placed team from Group K qualifies, they will automatically be paired against the Winner of Group L.
That's good news and bad news for the Three Lions. DR Congo have a point on the board to hold them in good standing to grab that third-place spot – and they're the most likely opponents in the second round for Thomas Tuchel's side.
Tuchel would certainly take that possibility ahead of the likes of Senegal and Ivory Coast, who, with respect, look stronger than DR Congo… but right now, DR Congo are in the driving seat for a top-two finish.
With supposedly the most difficult side out of the way, the Leopards are second in the group, with Portugal in third, potentially setting up a replay of 2004 and 2006. Colombia are top of Group K – and if they can remain there, while DR Congo can better Portugal's results in the next two games – that sets up a clash between England and Cristiano Ronaldo. Tasty.
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Last-16
Round of 16: Mexico
The winner of Group A faces third in Group C, E, F, H or I (it's complicated, isn't it?) – so and England win their Round-of-32 clash, they'll face the winner of that game.
Right now, co-hosts Mexico are looking like topping Group A, though it could be South Korea, particularly if a shock ensues tonight.
Judging by team quality and opening matchday results, the most likely opponents for the Group A winners are Ecuador, who slumped to a late 1-0 loss to Ivory Coast, but should breeze past Curacao in Group E – and may rack up a favourable goal difference in the process. Next likely is Group I's Senegal, who are expected to beat Iraq in the Group of Death – with England perhaps hoping to avoid a side who beat them comfortably last summer.
Japan, Netherlands or Sweden from Group F are possibilities to finish third – while there is a remote chance that Scotland could somehow draw Mexico in the next round… though plenty of improbable results would have to align.
So basically, it's probably Mexico or Ecuador right now. Given Mexico's phenomenal record at home, we'd bank on them in a tough tie for Thomas Tuchel.
Quarter-finals
Quarter-finals: Brazil (or Morocco… or Japan… or Norway… or Scotland!?)
Should FIFA World Rankings play out, Brazil would face England in the quarter-finals of the World Cup, just as in 2002. But then the game isn't played on paper, is it?
There's every chance that a stuttering Selecao finish second in their group to an impressive Morocco, who held them 1-1 in New Jersey – and whoever makes it out alive from Group C has to likely face Japan in the last-32 before Ecuador or Norway in the last-16. Frankly, anything could happen in that eighth of the draw.
…Including the possibility that – we've got to give them their dues – Scotland hold onto top spot in that group and get to the final eight. Stranger things have happened, right?
Semi-finals
Semi-finals: Argentina (or Colombia, Portugal or Senegal)
When the draw was made for the World Cup, England, France, Spain and Argentina were separated into four different corners of the tournament, with each of them primed to meet in the semi-finals, should they get that far.
At this incredibly premature stage, England and Argentina are holding up on their end of the deal, and as things stand, would meet in the semi-finals of the World Cup for a first grudge match between the pair in a tournament since 2002 – with France and Spain on the other side of the draw, in a rematch of the Euro 2024 clash between Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappe.
Of course, Lionel Messi and co. have to actually get there – and standing in their way would likely be Uruguay, then maybe Turkey, Australia or Iran, then perhaps Colombia or Portugal. Anything could happen, let's not forget: after all, we all mapped out Spain to meet England in the 2018 semi, only for Russia to knock them out, who were in turn dispatched by Croatia.
Final
Final: Spain, France, Germany… or Croatia or Belgium
We all expect France to top their group – and so should Germany, who would meet Les Bleus in the knockouts, just as they did in 2014, if they can navigate the path there without a hitch. The Netherlands may face the winner in the quarter-finals.
The road to the other semi-final involves Spain as perhaps the strongest team in that side of the draw, along with Belgium and Croatia, who are weaker on paper but have recent World Cup knockout pedigree. Should Portugal finish second in their group, they'll also be on that side of the draw.
But we know what you're really here for, and the answer is this: Scotland would have to finish second in their group and England top in theirs – or vice versa – for the two to have a chance of meeting at the MetLife Stadium next month for the World Cup final.
Best and worst case scenarios
The best (likely) case scenario for England's route to the World Cup final
- Last-32: Democratic Republic of Congo
- Last-16: South Korea
- Quarter-finals: Norway or Ecuador
- Semi-finals: Colombia, Switzerland or Uruguay
- Final: Germany, Belgium or Croatia
The worst (likely) case scenario for England's route to the World Cup final
- Last-32: Portugal
- Last-16: Mexico
- Quarter-finals: Brazil
- Semi-finals: Argentina
- Final: France or Spain
