Sitting bottom of the Premier League’s Expected Points (xPTS) table is cause for concern at St James' Park this season.
Newcastle United’s high-risk tactical approach under new head coach Matthias Jaissle has left them exposed in transition, but their biggest structural weakness appears when they are forced onto the back foot. The team has largely relied on a single way of playing so far, with little in the way of an effective direct outlet when opponents pin them deep.
The root of the issue is highlighted in data published by Twitter/X user @markrstats who has examined how Premier League forwards perform when contesting long balls. The data visualisation plots volume (how often a forward is first to a long clearance per 90 minutes) against security (how often the forward's team retains possession).
Newcastle have a target man problem - but Matthias Jaissle does have a fix
Across the division, Newcastle’s attacking options register some of the weakest numbers in the league.
Matias Fernandez-Pardo ranks lowest in the below dataset for ball retention. While he contests an average of 2.8 long balls per 90 minutes, Newcastle retain possession following his involvement just 27% of the time. In practical terms, roughly three out of every four long balls targeted toward Fernandez-Pardo result in a turnover of possession.
Brian Brobbey is the best target man in the Premier League this season When Sunderland go long from their own half and he gets to the ball first, they keep it 79% of the time. The average for forwards is 53%. Calvert-Lewin, who wins far more long balls, is at 53%, Delap at 38% https://t.co/Q5Ftm51HOxNovember 8, 2026
Yoane Wissa offers even less presence in these situations. The DR Congo forward is first to just 1.2 long balls per 90 minutes - the lowest of any forward evaluated in the graphic.
His retention rate of roughly 41.5% is an improvement on Fernandez-Pardo, but his low involvement means Newcastle rarely look in his direction when clearing the ball from deep.
By comparison, effective direct outlets offer either high-volume contesting or a high level of security. Dominic Calvert-Lewin contests 7.1 long balls per 90 for Leeds United, with a 53% retention rate, while Sunderland’s Brian Brobbey combines 4.9 long balls per 90 with a league-leading 79% retention rate.
Newcastle possess neither attribute in their current starting frontline.
This lack of aerial presence can leave the side trapped in their own half whenever an opposing press successfully cuts off short passing options - which is not a place any team wants to find themselves. Without a forward who can pin a centre-back or win an initial duel, Newcastle cannot move up the pitch as a unit.
Newcastle's squad does, however, contain a profile capable of addressing this shortcoming in Will Osula.
Standing at well over 6ft tall, the Danish international offers the physical profile Newcastle are currently missing centrally.
In his Premier League minutes, Osula has averaged 4.35 successful aerial duels per 90 - the highest among all Newcastle players, ahead of central defenders Dan Burn (4.00) and Sven Botman.
His aerial duel success rate regularly exceeds 70%, offering the target man traits required to bring supporting runners into play.
When he has started this season, Newcastle have looked more of a threat, including in the season opener at home to Liverpool, and the 2-0 away win against Crystal Palace.
Playing exclusively through transition and pressing is not yet generating reliable results for the Magpies. Unless Newcastle change their attacking style and deploy more of a reference point like Osula to make long balls stick, their lack of a direct alternative could drag them into a relegation fight.
