League Two promotion and relegation permutations: Who needs what on the final day?

The automatic promotion places may already have been filled, but there is still plenty of intrigue down in League Two on the final day with just one of the four play-off places claimed and a last-day relegation battle to be decided.

Six sides are battling for the remaining three play-off berths, albeit two of them need an awful lot of things to go their way to make it in. But hey, stranger things have happened, so it’s worth knowing the permutations.

Sutton United meanwhile need a monstrous effort and a Colchester loss to stay up…and even that might not end up being enough for them. Here’s how it looks up and down the division in Saturday's 3pm kick-offs.

League Two automatic promotion permutations

There are none. Stockport County are going up to League One as champions, joined by Mansfield Town and Wrexham.

Second place is still to play for but we doubt anybody particularly cares.

League Two play-off places

Milton Keynes Dons are the only team guaranteed a play-off place, sitting as they do seven points ahead of fifth-placed Doncaster Rovers.

Right, strap in now, because it gets incredibly complicated now.

Doncaster Rovers and/or Crewe Alexandra would be guaranteed (a) play-off place(s) if they avoid defeat in their respective games. Donny go away to Gillingham, while Crewe visit relegation-battling Colchester.

If either Donny or Crewe lose, they would be overtaken by a victorious Barrow or Crawley, but that would still be enough for a top-seven finish as long as the other one of the chasing duo failed to win.

If one of Donny and Crewe lose while the other doesn’t, and Barrow and Crawley both win, then the losing team would finish outside the play-off places.

If Donny and Crewe both lose, only one of the two can possibly slide out of the play-off places even if Barrow and Crawley both win (in which case Crawley’s goal difference would necessarily see them claim a play-off place alongside Barrow). In that case it would come down to goal difference or goals scored to decide whether Donny or Crewe got the final slot; Doncaster currently hold a one-goal advantage over Crewe on goal difference and have scored three more goals.

Barrow, current occupants of the fourth and final play-off berth, are two points behind Doncaster and Crewe with a superior goal difference and ahead of Crawley by a point, so a win for them at home to Mansfield would assure them a play-off place come what may.

If Barrow draw, they would be at risk of losing the final play-off spot to a victorious Crawley; or to Bradford, who are two points behind, though as we’ll come to in a moment, goal difference makes that very unlikely.

If Barrow fail to win, Crawley Town would be guaranteed a play-off place with a victory.

Only a two-goal-or-more Barrow loss would mean Crawley Town would overtake them with a draw at home to Grimsby – but that may still not be enough for Crawley to take a play-off place if Bradford were to beat Newport to finish seventh.

Crawley would also claim a play-off place if they win and Doncaster and Crewe both lose, regardless of Barrow’s result.

Two points off the play-off places, Bradford City have only faint hopes of sneaking in, despite their excellent recent form. Unless they win by seven clear goals (in which case a Barrow draw of 2-2 or lower and a Crawley non-win would work), Bradford need to win, and for Barrow to lose, and for Crawley to claim no more than a draw.

To get ultra-ridiculous: if Bradford win 7-0, Crawley fail to win and Barrow draw 3-3 (or Bradford win 8-1 and Barrow draw 4-4, etc), then Bradford and Barrow would be level on points, goal difference, goals scored, and head-to-head record – and so Bradford would get the play-off spot on the basis of having won one more game than Barrow. 

Walsall’s chances are even more remote. Three points adrift of seventh, they would need to win away to AFC Wimbledon, and for Barrow to lose, and to make up a six-goal swing on Barrow’s goal difference, and for Crawley to lose (or draw, with Walsall making up a four-goal swing on their goal difference), and for Bradford to fail to win.

League Two relegation permutations

Thankfully, this one is a bit simpler…probably. Forest Green are already down, for starters.

The second relegation place will be Sutton United’s unless they win away to MK Dons and Colchester United lose at home to Crewe and Sutton make up a four-goal swing in goal difference.

If they met in the middle on a goal difference of -23, it would come down to goals scored; Colchester are currently three goals better off on that count.

If the sides finished level on points, goal difference and goals scored (e.g. if Sutton win 3-1 while Colchester lose 2-0, Sutton win 4-2 while Colchester lose 3-1, etc), then the next criterion, head-to-head record, is no help either, since the two sides drew both games against each other 1-1. 

Colchester would therefore stay up by virtue of having won one more game over the season as a whole.