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FPL tips: Phil your boots with Threat king Foden

Brighton and Hove Albion v Manchester City – Premier League – AMEX Stadium
(Image credit: Gareth Fuller)

Phil Foden‘s gameweek nine performance will have convinced plenty of FPL managers to bring the Englishman into their squad, and the data backs that decision too.

Threat is a metric introduced by the FPL to measure the quality of the chances a player enjoys in front of goal, with a score of around 100 usually accounting for a goal’s worth of chances.

By looking at how much Threat a team scored and allowed during a game, one can better understand whether their result aligned with the strength of their performance.

Manchester City were well worth their 4-1 win on Saturday for example, while Watford and Brentford perhaps did not get the result they deserved.

A graphic showing how much Threat each Premier League team scored and conceded in gameweek nine of the season

Get your Phil

Brighton and Hove Albion’s Joel Veltman(left) and Tariq Lamptey battle with Manchester City’s Phil Foden during the Premier League match at the AMEX Stadium, Brighton. Picture date: Saturday October 23, 2021

(Gareth Fuller/PA)

Manchester City racked up a mammoth 398 Threat against Brighton this weekend, conceding just 136 – they were very much worth their 4-1 win.

Foden was their star man at the Amex, scoring two, assisting one and earning 18 FPL points for the 470,000 bosses who backed him.

That number will surely go through the roof in the weeks to come, the £8.1million man hinting at the havoc he can wreak for the defending champions.

The 21-year-old managed nine goals and eight assists in City’s title-winning campaign last year, but looks more than capable of reaching double figures in both departments on the strength of Saturday’s showing.

After missing the start of the season with a foot injury, Foden has already made up for lost time with three goals and two assists totalling 35 FPL points so far.

City meanwhile have now scored in excess of 200 Threat on seven out of nine occasions this season, while they average just 90.9 Threat conceded per game, the best in the division.

King Hornet

Watford’s Joshua King scores their side’s third goal of the game during the Premier League match at Goodison Park, Liverpool. Picture date: Saturday October 23, 2021

(Martin Rickett/PA)

Around 75 minutes into Everton’s game against Watford on Saturday the Toffees led 2-1 – in the next 15 or so minutes they conceded four and ended up losing 5-2.

While Everton may well have switched off and been deservedly punished, the Threat charts show both sides scored similarly, with Watford scoring 246 and their opponents managing 210.

A 5-2 result will have certainly alarmed the fans at Goodison Park then, but this was not 90 minutes of domination from the visitors by any stretch.

What it was however, was a suggestion that Watford under Claudio Ranieri may be a different beast, and Joshua King was right at the forefront.

The forward scored a hat-trick and notched 122 Threat during the fixture, adding to the three assists he had already accrued this season.

At £5.5m and 2.1 per cent selection, King makes for an appealing differential prospect, especially with his colleague Emmanuel Dennis suspended for a game.

That said, after the Hornets face Southampton next, they must play Arsenal, Manchester United, Leicester, Chelsea and Manchester City.

Bees outfoxed

Leicester City’s Daniel Amartey celebrates the win after the Premier League match at the Brentford Community Stadium, London. Picture date: Sunday October 24, 2021

(John Walton/PA)

It’s fair to say that Brentford are not getting the rub of the green at the moment, having won just one of their last four fixtures despite outscoring all four opponents for Threat.

This is the nature of the Premier League, where teams are punished for the smallest of errors – and that’s what happened to the Bees when visitors Leicester won 2-1 despite being outscored by 198 to 102 on the Threat charts.

If the newly-promoted side continue to perform at that level, results should turn in their favour soon enough – but for now their low-cost players are probably worth sticking with.

Defender Mathias ‘Zanka’ Jorgensen is one of those who could be worth a try, having scored Brentford’s goal and notched 51 Threat on Sunday.

Striker Ivan Toney meanwhile has now gone four games without a goal, but did register 43 Threat against Leicester as he continues to find himself in goalscoring positions.

Brentford face Burnley, Norwich and Newcastle – three games rated two out of five for difficulty by the FPL – next in the league, where the Bees could find their buzz.

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