Team overview
By Paul Tenorio | @PaulTenorio |
The question is how Colombia would build upon those performances. Since that tournament ended, the response has been unclear.
Colombia advanced to the knockout stage at the Copa America in 2015 only to see its run ended on penalties by Argentina. There have been some discouraging moments, too. Colombia lost twice in its first three World Cup qualifiers, including a 3-0 defeat to Uruguay, and scored just three goals in those games.
Consecutive wins over Bolivia and Ecuador pulled Los Cafeteros back into fifth in CONMEBOL qualifying, one point ahead of Brazil, and this Centenario is a chance for Colombia to move into the conversation of the top teams in the Americas.
Key player
Carlos Bacca. Sure, James is the name we all know. After all, he headed to Real Madrid on a reported $90 million transfer after winning Golden Boot honors at the 2014 World Cup. But while James has struggled at Real Madrid, the 29-year-old Bacca has thrived in Europe.
It’s been a steady ascension for the Colombian over the past four seasons. He scored 28 goals in Belgium for Club Brugge in 2012-13, then moved to Spain where he netted 49 times in two seasons for Sevilla. That scoring rate earned him a move to Milan for a reported $34 million fee, and he’s continued to find the back of the net with regularity in Serie A. Bacca scored 16 goals in league play this season, form that caught the interest of Liverpool, and he’s scored three times in World Cup qualifying for Colombia already this year.
If there is a player who can turn the tournament for Colombia, it’s this goal-scorer, who will sit up top with James playing behind him in a 4-2-3-1. If he continues his torrid scoring pace, Colombia will be a true threat to make a run at the Centenario crown.
Manager spotlight
José Pékerman has guided Colombia since 2012, and his influence has been quite positive over the last four years. The Argentine, who led his native country to the quarterfinals of the 2006 World Cup, has seemingly reinvigorated a Colombian program that, before 2014, failed to qualify for the World Cup in its previous three tries.
Colombia hired Pékerman as its third coach during the 2014 qualifying cycle, and he immediately made an impact, leading Los Cafeteros to a second-place finish in CONMEBOL qualifying. Pékerman’s willingness to experiment with lineups and formations hasn’t always won him support within the country, but it’s gotten results. That continued at the World Cup, where the breakout performance of James nearly pushed the team into the semifinals. Colombia scored 11 goals in its first four games before its quarterfinal loss to Brazil.
Pékerman’s willingness to shake things up is evident in his preliminary Copa roster, with Falcao, Teófilo Gutiérrez and Jackson Martínez all left out. Each come with red flags because of recent form, but Pékerman lived up to his reputation by showing no hesitancy in leaving them out in favor of somebody like 22-year-old Orlando City midfielder Cristian Higuita, who has yet to make his debut for Colombia on the senior level.
Success looks like…
A chance at winning the whole thing. And yes, this Colombia team is certainly capable of making that kind of run.
An easy slalom through the group stage, including a tournament-opening win over the host U.S., would put Colombia in prime position for a run deep. If James regains his form and leads Los Cafeteros to a dominant win over the Group B runners-up in the quarterfinals, Columbia would set up a rematch with Argentina in the semifinals. Imagine that scenario: Colombians worldwide celebrating as their country pulls off an upset over the team that knocked them out of the tournament one year ago, once again dashing Lionel Messi’s chance at international glory.
An appearance in the final is cause for celebration enough. Win or lose, Colombia would have to be pleased with the opportunity to claim a major tournament crown for the first time since winning the Copa America in 2001.
Failure looks like…
The question certainly has been asked already this year: What’s happened to James? The calls would only amplify if the 24-year-old continued his struggles in Copa America. With no Radamel Falcao on the roster, Carlos Bacca will likely become the focal point of the team, but if he is swallowed up by teams focused on stopping the Milan star, a worst-case scenario could unfold.
If the Colombia team that’s struggled to find goals early in 2018 World Cup qualifying reappears in the Centenario, it could be bested by the U.S. to open Group A play. The confidence-shaking loss to the Americans would be enough to factor into the next game, but Los Cafeteros couldn’t afford a letdown against Paraguay in the Rose Bowl. The result might be yet another loss, which would mean Colombia could be eliminated from the tournament before even reaching its third game. If that’s the case, a meaningless match-up against a Costa Rica team that is playing for its tournament life isn’t ideal, either.
Yes, a team that is capable of winning this whole tournament is staring down a nightmare scenario of heading home without a single win, or even a single point. For a team with the highest of expectations, it would be a crisis that could have a carry-over effect into World Cup qualifying this fall.
