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FPL tips: Everton and Harvey Barnes the real deal according to Threat metric

Tottenham Hotspur v Everton – Premier League – Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
(Image credit: Alex Pantling)

Anyone who saw this weekend’s Premier League results would know it was a good round for Everton and Leicester, but by analysing the Fantasy Premier League’s Threat metric one can gain deeper insight into performance.

According to the Premier League website, Threat produces “a value that examines a player’s threat on goal” with a score of around 100 roughly equating to a goal’s worth of chances.

Looking at Threat scores then can show who was good value for their goals, as well as which players and teams were perhaps fortunate to score as many as they did and vice-versa.

Chew on a toffee

A graphic showing the Threat scores in the Fantasy Premier League for teams in gameweek two of the 2020/21 season

Not long ago Everton had faded in the minds of many FPL managers, but with Carlo Ancelotti and James Rodriguez at the club, the outlook suddenly looks rosy.

The club have won their opening two fixtures of the season in impressive fashion, beating Tottenham 1-0 in the first before thumping West Brom 5-2.

The festival of goals was no fluke either – the Toffees registered the highest Threat score of any team in GW2 (313) after posting the seventh best score in GW1 (160).

Hat-trick man Dominic Calvert-Lewin was good value for his trio of goals too, notching the highest individual Threat score of any player in GW2 (144) against the Baggies – the £7.2m man has four goals and 25 FPL points already.

With Rodriguez racking up solid Creativity scores in behind, this could be the season to back the Merseyside forwards.

A fine Barnes

Leicester City v Burnley – Premier League – King Power Stadium

Leicester’s Harvey Barnes (third left) scored his side’s first goal of the game against Burnley (Peter Powell/PA)

Calvert-Lewin wasn’t the only young Englishman to impress in blue this weekend however – Harvey Barnes is quickly becoming one of the first names on the team sheet at Leicester.

The 22-year-old came good for the 3.7 per cent of managers who backed him with a goal and an assist against Burnley on Sunday, producing a 13-point return on their investment.

Barnes could have scored more too, with his Threat score of 99 the second highest of any midfielder in GW2.

Barnes managed six goals and 10 assists last season, and will surely be aiming for double figures in both this time around. Leicester meanwhile have seven goals already in the league, and look a strong attacking unit once again.


Manchester United v Crystal Palace – Premier League – Old Trafford

Bruno Fernandes and Timothy Fosu-Mensah look dejected after Crystal Palace second goal at Old Trafford (Richard Heathcote/PA)

While the Threat metric can be used to back up whether or not a player is worth their goals, it can also shed some light on whether a team’s performance was accurately reflected in the scoreline.

With that in mind, any managers who have invested in Manchester United players might want to take a breath before selling off any and all of their Old Trafford assets.

While United were beaten 3-1 by Crystal Palace, the home side actually registered a better Threat score than their opponents, achieving 206 as a team.

Five players, meanwhile – Anthony Martial, Mason Greenwood, Bruno Fernandes, Donny van de Beek and Daniel James – all registered Threat scores in the 20s.

Tottenham, meanwhile, may have scored five against Southampton’s hapless high line, but the losing side actually registered a better Threat score (175) than Spurs (164).

With that in mind, don’t go expecting Spurs to knock five in every week.