Can a World Cup third-placed side make it through to the knockout stage with just one or two points?

Kevin De Bruyne of Belgium during the International Friendly match between Belgium v Tunisia at the Koning Boudewijn Stadium.
Belgium are currently third in Group G with just two points (Image credit: Joris Verwijst/Soccrates/Getty Images)

For a while there, before Morocco twice came back from behind to ultimately win the game, it looked like Haiti could finish Group C with three points and still finish bottom.

It could still happen yet at this summer's World Cup. Most of the incomplete groups still hold at least the possibility of a side finishing bottom of their group with three points and thus being eliminated at the group stage.

Already-eliminated Turkiye, for instance, would do exactly that if they were to beat the United States on Thursday.

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How three World Cup teams could finish third with one point

That raises the question: given that the third-placed sides are all judged against one another, regardless of what the other sides in their groups did...could we see one country eliminated with three points while another nation with fewer points goes through?

The short answer is yes: failing to make it to three points but finishing third still technically gives a side a chance to make it into the round of 32.

Scotland have finished third in their group with three points

Scotland manager Steve Clarke will be one of the managers keeping a close eye on the table of third-placed teams (Image credit: Getty Images)

That's because only the worst four third-placed teams are eliminated, and there are are enough groups where it is technically possible to finish third with fewer than three points.

Those groups are as follows:

Lowest possible points required to finish third

  • Group A: 1 point: If Mexico beat Czech Republic AND South Korea beat South Africa. A draw in one of those games instead would mean the third-placed side finishes with two points.
  • Group E: 1 point: Same situation as Group A, with Curacao (vs Ivory Coast) and Ecuador (vs Germany) the games in question.
  • Group G: 2 points: If New Zealand beat Belgium, and/or if Egypt beat Iran.
  • Group H: 2 points: If Uruguay lose to Spain.
  • Group I: 1 point: If Senegal and Iraq draw with one another
  • Group K: 2 points: If DR Congo and Uzbekistan draw with one another

In the unlikely event that five of those six groups go that way, then one team with two points would make it through to the round of 32.

In the even more unlikely scenario that all six groups go that way, then two teams with two points would be into the knockouts.

That does however mean that there is no possibility of a team making it through as a third-placed team with just one point.

Steven Chicken

Steven Chicken has been working as a football writer since 2009, taking in stints with Football365 and the Huddersfield Examiner. Steven still covers Huddersfield Town home and away for his own publication, WeAreTerriers.com. Steven is a two-time nominee for Regional Journalist of the Year at the prestigious British Sports Journalism Awards, making the shortlist in 2020 and 2023.

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