It's going to be a nervous few days ahead for Scotland after their 3-0 defeat to Brazil.
The eight best-ranked third-placed sides from the 12 groups will go through to the round of 32, with the other four sides going out.
That leaves Scotland facing an anxious wait to see if three points with a goal difference of minus three will be sufficient to outpace at least four of the other third-placed sides, or whether this is yet another major tournament group stage exit.
What Scotland need today
For Scotland to advance, they need at least four other 3rd-placed teams to finish with fewer than 3 points, or 3 points with a worse goal difference than -3.
Here are the exact games Scotland fans need to watch today, and the results to look out for...
- Ecuador vs Germany and Curacao vs Ivory Coast (Group E) – Scotland need Ecuador and Curacao to fail to win OR Ecuador to fail to win and Curacao to win by fewer than four goals
- Japan vs Sweden (Group F) – Scotland need Sweden to lose by more than four goals
- Paraguay vs Australia (Group D) – Scotland need Paraguay to win by at least four goals or lose by at least two goals
LIVE third-place table
Pos |
Group |
Team |
Played |
Pts |
Goal Difference |
Current Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
B |
Bosnia and Herzegovina |
3 |
4 |
-1 |
In |
2 |
F |
Sweden |
2 |
3 |
0 |
In |
3 |
L |
Croatia |
2 |
3 |
-1 |
In |
4 |
A |
South Korea |
3 |
3 |
-1 |
In |
5 |
J |
Algeria |
2 |
3 |
-2 |
In |
6 |
D |
Paraguay |
2 |
3 |
-2 |
In |
7 |
C |
Scotland |
3 |
3 |
-3 |
In |
8 |
H |
Cape Verde |
2 |
2 |
0 |
In |
9 |
G |
Belgium |
2 |
2 |
0 |
Out |
10 |
K |
DR Congo |
2 |
1 |
-1 |
Out |
11 |
E |
Ecuador |
2 |
1 |
-1 |
Out |
12 |
I |
Senegal |
2 |
0 |
-3 |
Out |
What Scotland need in every other group
Running through every single permutation would be too exhausting for anyone to handle.
Scotland have three points and a -3 goal difference so the more groups end with a third-placed team on fewer than three points, the better. But how likely is each group to deliver on that?
Here's the minimum possible points that the third-placed side in each group could end up on...
Minimum possible points to finish third in every group
Group A
Complete: South Africa (3 points, GD -1)
South Africa rank above Scotland.
Group C
Complete: Bosnia and Herzegovina (4 points)
Bosnia and Herzegovina rank above Scotland.
Group D
3 points: If Paraguay and Australia don’t draw with one another, the third-placed team will finish on three points. The exact score will determine the effect on Scotland's position.
Group E
1 point: If Ivory Coast beat Curacao AND Germany beat Ecuador, third place will be on one point. A draw in either or both games would mean the third-placed side finishes with two points. Either scenario would leave Scotland above Group E.
Group F
3 points: Scotland need Japan to beat Sweden by four goals. Any other outcome leaves Group F's third team out of their reach.
Group G
2 points: If New Zealand beat Belgium, and/or if Egypt beat Iran, Group G's third-placed team will remain below Scotland.
Group H
2 points: If Uruguay lose to Spain, the third-placed team will be below Scotland regardless of which team it is.
Group I
1 point: If Senegal and Iraq draw with one another, Senegal will be in third place with a single point. Scotland need Iraq to avoid defeat; an Iraq win would likely keep them below the Scots on goal difference.
Group J
3 points: If Austria and Algeria don’t draw with one another, three points will leave one of them in third. Scotland need an Austria win or a big Algeria win.
Group K
2 points: If DR Congo and Uzbekistan draw with one another, Scotland will be above the third-placed Group K team. A DR Congo win is the only scenario that would be a negative outlook for Clarke's team unless Uzbekistan rack up a cricket score.
Group L
3 points: If Croatia lose to Ghana, goal difference will decide whether Scotland rank above Croatia. It'll be close; Croatia's goal difference after two matches is -1. Any other outcome takes this group off the table as far as Scotland are concerned.
