Group H is shaping up for perhaps the most intriguing finale out of all of the 12 groups at this summer's World Cup.
That's because none of the positions in the group are yet nailed down, with Spain, Uruguay and Cape Verde all still mathematically capable of topping the group while bottom side Saudi Arabia could still finish as high as second.
The group will come to a close on Friday, with Cape Verde set to face Saudi Arabia at Houston's NRG Stadium at 7pm local time (1am UK time) while Uruguay simultaneously kick off against Spain at 6pm local time (also 1am UK time) at Zapopan's Estadio Akron.
The group winners will face the runners up from Group J in the next round; that's either Austria or Algeria. The runners-up will meanwhile go on to face Argentina. A sufficiently high-performing third-placed side would face either Mexico or the winners of Group G, where Egypt currently lead the way.
Group H permutations for final game
Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
1 | Spain | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
2 | Uruguay | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
3 | Cape Verde | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
4 | Saudi Arabia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | −4 | 1 |
• Spain would top the group with a win and probably with a draw, unless Cape Verde were to run absolutely rampant over Saudi Arabia to overhaul Spain on goal difference
Luis de la Fuente's side cannot finish any lower than third, which could only happen if they lose to Uruguay while Cape Verde beat Saudi Arabia. Even if they come third, they are very likely to be straight through as one of the eight best third-placed sides.
Spain would finish second in the group if they lose to Uruguay and Cape Verde fail to feat Saudi Arabia.
• Uruguay will definitely be out of the World Cup if they lose to Spain, as they would be certain to be overtaken by either Cape Verde or Saudi Arabia (or both, if they were to lose by five goals while the other game ended in a draw) and two points would definitely not be enough to put them through as one of the best eight third-placed sides.
A draw for Uruguay would guarantee them at least third place, possibly second if the other game also ends in a draw and goals scored remains in Uruguay's favour. Three points and zero goal difference may be enough to put them through in the third-place rankings.
A win for Uruguay would see them finish top of the group as long, as Cape Verde don't also win but by a larger margin.
• That last scenario is the only way Cape Verde could possibly top the group.
But a win over Saudi Arabia would guarantee the World Cup debutants a place in the round of 32 regardless what happens in the other game, as they would overtake at least one of Spain and/or Uruguay to finish in the top two.
A draw would put Cape Verde second if Uruguay lose. If Uruguay also draw, who got second place out of the two sides would come down to goals scored, then team conduct score. If they were still level on all fronts, Uruguay would progress on the basis of their FIFA world ranking
Cape Verde would definitely be out if they lose.
• Saudi Arabia will definitely be out unless they beat Cape Verde.
If they do manage to pick up the three points, they would finish second in the group unless Uruguay beat Spain.
If that happens, Saudi Arabia would finish third, but holding four points would still give them a good chance of making it through as one of the best third-placed sides. If they beat Cape Verde by at least three goals, their place in the round of 32 would be guaranteed.
