Start your engines
With another Premier League campaign of hijinks and hullabaloo kicking off on Friday night, we've had a crack at playing Mystic Meg for the campaign to come. But don't worry: it's only our reputation on the line (eek!).
Anyway, it's looking good for Leicester, West Ham and even Newcastle – plus a pair of ambitious top-10 finishers – but the outlook is bleak for Chelsea and Manchester United. Jose Mourinho in particular...
1. Change will be good for Arsenal
Seeing Arsenal managed by anyone other than Arsene Wenger will be weird. But Unai Emery won’t suffer from the same raised expectations as David Moyes at Manchester United, and the prospect of fulfilling the potential of the group he has inherited was arguably a big reason to take the job. There are diamonds to polish at the Emirates.
There’s also an argument that the imbalance of the squad could see the coach tie himself in knots, not to mention the task of jolting players out of complacency.
It could go either way, but it’s better than the stagnation of Wenger’s latter days. It’ll be something different to seeing the same thing time and again, to the slow erosion of a great manager’s reputation.
2. Fabianski will be the bargain of the season
What does £7m get you these days? About 11% of Alisson, and probably not a useful 11%. A couple of ribs, or something. Maybe a kneecap. Certainly not one of his arms.
But you can get a full Lukasz Fabianski, and of all West Ham’s transfer deals this summer – of which there have been many – the goalkeeper looks like the biggest bargain.
It’s never easy to evaluate how good a net-minder in an awful team is, but the Pole was one of the few Swansea players to emerge with any credit last season (and if we're being honest, the campaigns before that too). Hammers fans will feel far happier having him between the posts than Joe Hart.
3. Corner routine ends disastrously
Mercifully, most teams appear to have learned from the history of bad World Cup transfers, and not signed anyone based on a good tournament in Russia. But we’ll undoubtedly see some trends from the summer showpiece show up in the Premier League – and one might be the emphasis on set-pieces.
That will mean at least one team will try England’s ‘love train’ corner routine, where several players line up in single file and then scatter as the ball comes in, aiming to cause chaos in the defence.
Naturally, someone will get it wrong, fall over and end up in a great big penalty-area heap. Hopefully, for everyone else’s sake, Harry Maguire isn’t the man on top.
4. Burnley will struggle against relegation
Without wanting to diminish their accomplishment, it probably says more about the rest of the league that Burnley not only finished seventh last season but achieved that placing despite going 11 games without a win in the middle of the campaign and losing three of their last five games.
The Clarets were solid, but this time there’s no obvious whipping boy (beyond Cardiff), their direct rivals have strengthened, and Burnley have left it late to do their business (Joe Hart and Ben Gibson signed this week).
Throw in the potential Sunday-Thursday-Sunday balancing act, and extra minutes the Europa League brings, and we could see a decline in Burnley’s fortunes.
5. Benitez to stay and continue working miracles
Most Newcastle fans’ greatest fear is that Benitez will conclude that working under Mike Ashley is more hassle than it’s worth. However, you can’t help but think that if Benitez was going to throw in the towel, he would’ve done so by now.
There’s also a sense that the Spaniard is sort of trapped: a combination of him being a football and work obsessive, and his family living in England means his options are relatively limited. He’ll stay put, and as long as he’s there, the Magpies will continue to overachieve.
6. Everyone will love James Maddison
About a year ago, Maddison was in a bit of a state. His move from Coventry to Norwich hadn’t gone as hoped, he’d been sent on loan a couple of times and was getting a reputation as a man whose ego outweighed his ability. But he got down to work, improved his attitude and became one of the finest players in the second tier.
So much so that Leicester decided a 21-year-old with zero top-flight experience was worth up to £25m. He could be worth every penny though; this is a player who shines in tight situations, who isn’t slow but doesn’t rely on pace, and who’s moving to a team in need of a new creative ringleader after the departure of Riyad Mahrez.
7. Two promoted clubs will finish in the top half
Below the top six, the Premier League becomes a large bowl of mediocrity soup. The odd crouton of quality bobs to the surface now and then, but it’s broadly banal broth. A 21-point distance between Burnley in seventh and relegated Swansea was the same as the gap between the Clarets and Liverpool in the final Champions League spot.
That suggests anyone outside of the elite could finish anywhere, including the three sides coming up from the Championship. Cardiff are unfancied - Neil Warnock’s upstarts are favourites for the drop - but Fulham and Wolves are building squads comparable with any of their competitors. At least one of them – possibly both – will do very well.
8. Maurizio Sarri will be a calamity
It's a good job the World Cup kept everyone occupied this summer, because otherwise, Chelsea's managerial saga spilling over into pre-season would’ve been the focus of much more criticism.
Of course, there were reasons for Antonio Conte’s delayed exit, but that doesn’t change the fact that Maurizio Sarri has been given something of a hospital pass for his first season in English football. A squad lacking balance. Just one signing before deadline day. Thibaut Courtois departed for Real Madrid. All of this points to another pre-Christmas sacking at Stamford Bridge.
9. Liverpool will win nothing
It all seems too perfect. After years of relative austerity for such a big club, Liverpool have opened the chequebook and spent freely since the turn of the year. But they haven’t just thrown money around; the Reds have spent sensibly, addressing weaknesses in their squad and plugging the gaps with the best targets realistically available.
Everything makes sense. And yet this is Liverpool. No league title for 28 years, and in recent times their record in cup finals isn’t worth shouting about either. We can’t explain our formula here: sometimes you just have to go on vibes. Despite all the logic, all the common sense, all the ostensibly refined planning, they’ll end up with nothing. Probably.
10. Mourinho gone on October 22
It doesn’t take an expert to spot that we’ve seen this before. Jose Mourinho’s manner recently would kindly be described as ‘downbeat’. Sending coded messages to the club hierarchy is one thing, but picking strange fights with players and accusing half his squad of being slackers is another thing entirely.
This will appear familiar for Chelsea supporters – a sequence of events they witnessed three years ago, which ended with the manager crying betrayal after being sacked in December.
United play Mourinho’s old side on the weekend of October 20: a poor start to the campaign, demoralised players not stimulated about fighting for their manager and a symbolic loss against old friends – it all seems too clear. He’ll be gone by the Monday.
