Skip to main content

FPL tips: Hammers could be dark horses according to underlying data

West Ham United v Aston Villa – Premier League – London Stadium
(Image credit: Neil Hall)

West Ham may have suffered a disappointing defeat to Manchester United this weekend but the underlying stats suggest there is promise in the team.

The Fantasy Premier League website’s Threat metric awards points for each attempt on goal, with around 100 Threat points historically accounting for around a goal’s worth of chances.

Not only did the Hammers produce the third highest Threat total of the weekend, their average score is now better than league leaders Tottenham.

A graphic showing how much Threat Premier League teams scored in gameweek 11 of the Fantasy Premier League against how much Threat they allowed

Bowen waiting in the wings

West Ham United’s Jarrod Bowen shoots and scores but his effort is ruled out for offside during the Premier League match at The London Stadium

(Justin Setterfield/PA)

Despite being West Ham’s top scorer and boasting a tempting £6.3m price tag, Jarrod Bowen is owned by just 2.3 per cent of fantasy bosses.

The former Hull winger had the highest share of his side’s Threat in GW11, pulling him clear of Michail Antonio as the club leader for the season as a whole.

United were the fifth of the league’s traditional big six that Bowen and his team-mates have faced so far, meaning they now have a relatively kind run of fixtures until the season reaches its halfway point.

With impressive Threat scores behind them, Bowen and Antonio look likely to rack up the points should their performances remain consistent.

Timo Werner, Threat earner

Chelsea’s Timo Werner scores his side’s fourth goal of the game during the Premier League match at Stamford Bridge, London

(Ben Stansall/PA)

Chelsea have been praised for their defensive performances in recent weeks, but in GW11 it was their attack which came to the fore.

The 391 points of Threat they registered against Leeds was the most that any team has managed in a single match this season. Summer signing Timo Werner was responsible for 114 of their tally despite failing to get on the scoresheet.

Werner’s score was his best of the season so far and the highest total posted by any player this weekend. After six weeks of fairly modest returns, is this a sign that he is about to deliver a big points haul?

Palace highlight Albion’s defensive woes

Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha (2nd left) celebrates with his team-mates after scoring his side’s fourth goal of the game during the Premier League match at The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

(Rui Vieira/PA)

In between Chelsea and West Ham at the top of this week’s Threat table are Crystal Palace, but this may be more an indictment of their opponents than an endorsement of the Eagles’ attack.

West Brom will point to the fact that they had to play almost an hour with 10 men against Palace, but this was the seventh match this season in which they have allowed more than 200 points of Threat.

So while Wilfried Zaha – the seventh highest FPL points scorer of the season so far – is becoming hard to ignore, maybe it is just as worthwhile to check who the Baggies are playing on any given weekend and make sure you have at least one of their opponents’ players.