FPL tips: Is Threat king Ollie Watkins set to take the league by storm?

After Ollie Watkins notched a brace against Arsenal earlier in the season the Aston Villa frontman looked to be the FPL bargain of the year, but a goal drought put paid to such ideas.

After nine games without a league effort going in however, the 25-year-old appears to have found his shooting boots once more.

With two in two games Watkins is firing again, and his rolling Threat numbers suggest he is well set to continue finding the net.

For those not in the know, Threat is the metric by which the FPL measures the quality of the chances a player enjoys in front of goal.

A score of around 100 has traditionally accounted for a goal’s worth of chances – Threat then offers an insight into whether a player is deserving of the goals they have scored.

Return of the Watkins

Not only does Watkins have the highest rolling Threat total in the division across his last six games (372) he is also the top-ranked forward for Threat across the season (888).

While his shooting boots have only been rediscovered in the last two games, his Threat scores in the fixtures beforehand suggest such returns were coming, and may be set to continue.

Threat scores of 98 and 140 in his recent games demonstrate Watkins is getting himself into positions where goals are likely – if he continues to perform at this level, he would be unfortunate to go nine games without a goal again.

Now owned by around one million managers, plenty are recognising Watkins’ return to form. Villa, meanwhile, only have one fixture ranked higher than three on the game’s Fixture Difficulty Ranking system in their next 10.

Mane makes the world go round

Sadio Mane has emerged as one of the Premier League’s finest players in recent years, but 2020/21 has not been a vintage season for the Liverpool forward.

That said, performances in his last six appearances have yielded a cumulative Threat score of 359, second only to Watkins in that period.

Those performances yielded suggested Mane was due to come good, and he duly did with his seventh goal of the season in the Reds’ 3-1 win against Tottenham, a game in which he scored exactly 100 Threat.

The former Southampton man is now the highest-ranked midfielder for Threat across the season – just a handful of goals away from 100 in the PL, could Mane reach the milestone in the second half of the campaign?

The chasing pack

Rounding out the top five are Roberto Firmino (295) Raheem Sterling (293) and Alexandre Lacazette (276).

Firmino scored against Spurs too, and while his returns are certainly less impressive than those of Mane or Mohamed Salah, his £9.3m price tag makes him a more affordable option.

Sterling, meanwhile, is riding the wave of Manchester City’s return to form, averaging almost 50 Threat per game across his last six, including an impressive score of 105 against West Brom.

And finally, Arsenal man Lacazette has positioned himself as a consistent performer in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s absence, scoring five goals in his last six.

He averages seven FPL points per game across that period as a result, and at £8.3m represents an attractive mid-priced option up front.