I just watched Brazil live in Houston – here's why they can win the World Cup

HOUSTON, TEXAS - JUNE 29: Gabriel Martinelli #22 of Brazil celebrates with teammates after scoring the team's second goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round Of 32 match between Brazil and Japan at Houston Stadium on June 29, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Lars Baron/Getty Images)
Brazil's win vs. Japan lived up to the expectations (Image credit: Getty Images)

Good things come to those who wait, and that proved to be the case for me in Texas today en route to the World Cup Round of 32 match between Brazil and Japan. Whilst it only took me two minutes to get from my hotel to Houston Stadium, it took me more than an hour to find my way past the hordes of supporters and navigate the labyrinth of a stadium.

After trekking around the entire venue and asking dozens of volunteers and horseback policemen for help, I finally arrived with just under a half-hour to go before kickoff, trading oppressive Houston heat for overpowered air conditioning inside the press box.

There, I found a complimentary buffet loaded with Brazilian fare like feijoada (a rich stew made with black beans, pork and beef) as well as local options like green beans. I also found an incredible viewing area, with a steep perspective enabling me to see the entire field. Unlike some venues, like New York/New Jersey, the window panes were removed, allowing journalists to actually hear the cacophonous crowd noise.

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Brazil take major step towards winning their first World Cup in 24 years

Players line up before the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round Of 32 match between Brazil and Japan at Houston Stadium.

Brazil and Japan left it all on the pitch in Houston (Image credit: Getty Images)

More importantly, however, the game itself actually surpassed expectations. Brazil started off the stronger side, heaping pressure onto the opposing defence and banging on the door for the opening goal, only to be denied by Japan's last-gasp rear guard.

But Japan rode the storm and eventually struck first blood, via Kaishu Sano capitalising on a careless giveaway from Casemiro and taking aim from distance to put the Samurai Blue in the driving seat.

Japan goalkeeper Zion Suzuki celebrates his team's first goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round Of 32 match between Brazil and Japan.

Zion Suzuki delivered a top display in Houston (Image credit: Getty Images)

The last time they played in October, Brazil entered halftime with a 2-0 lead before conceding three goals in Tokyo. This time, however, they completely flipped the script, with the halftime substitution of Endrick for Lucas Paquetá working like a charm.

With two attackers up top, Brazil started to congest the Samurai Blue deeper into their own half. In contrast to the first half, when they dominated possession but were still vulnerable to transitions, there was no such threat in the second 45 minutes.

It seemed only a matter of time before they equalised, and it was Casemiro who atoned for his error with a trademark headed goal in the 56th minute. Not to rest on his laurels, Carlo Ancelotti subbed on Gabriel Martinelli for Matheus Cunha, whilst Hajime Moriyasu made a string of defensive substitutions.

Japan were hanging on, relying on the shot-stopping heroics of Zion Suzuki to keep Brazil's overpowering attack at bay. Brazil, however, started to play the kind of football that saw them dominate the sport and win a record five World Cups.

Japan began to retreat into their shell, showing Brazil too much respect without ever making them wary of their transitional threat. In the very last minute, this came back to bite them as Bruno Guimarães squeezed in a super, deft pass (his fourth assist of the tournament) for Martinelli, who struck home the winning goal.

Carlo Ancelotti, Head Coach of Brazil poses for a portrait during the official FIFA World Cup 2026 portrait session on June 04, 2026 in Morristown, New Jersey.

Carlo Ancelotti is seeking to become the first foreign-born coach to win a World Cup. (Image credit: Getty Images)

It was yet another heartbreaking defeat for Japan after their late collapse vs. Belgium in 2018 and their penalty shootout defeat to Croatia in 2022. But whilst Japan are still waiting on their first-ever knockout round win, Brazil find themselves three games away from their first World Cup Final since 2002.

There are still a number of concerns from Brazil, like their careless giveaways in midfield, their lack of quality at the fullback positions, as well as their vulnerability defending transitions. One narrow win vs. Japan doesn't change that.

But whilst they may not be favourites like Argentina or France, this Brazil team has proven that they have the quality and the mental fortitude to go far. With Vinícius Júnior and co. wreaking havoc in attack and the rest of their players starting to click on all cylinders, there's every reason to believe that Brazil can make it all the way and win a record-extending sixth World Cup.

Zach Lowy

After getting his big breakthrough as the co-founder of the football analytics website Breaking The Lines, Zachary Lowy has been able to tap into his footballing expertise for a number of esteemed outlets like ESPN, FotMob, The Times, The Independent and Urban Pitch. Since joining FourFourTwo as a freelancer in 2025, Lowy has been able to cover a wide range of topics from analyzing the sweeping changes to the MLS season to interviewing key figures like Asamoah Gyan and Rob Holding. Fluent in Spanish, Portuguese and Italian, Lowy’s versatile skillset has allowed him to traverse a number of different fields when covering major competitions like the FIFA Club World Cup. In addition to football, he is also a seasoned participant of other sports like pickleball, tennis, and volleyball.

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