While the elite Fantasy Premier League managers have a wealth of knowledge, even they get it wrong sometimes, as might well be the case with their backing of Danny Ings over Raul Jimenez.
From a database of over 250 bosses who each have at least five top-10,000 finishes, we have analysed which strikers the cream of the crop own ahead of gameweek 29.
The results show that there are just six forwards owned by more than 10 per cent of this group of managers at present.
But why are the top three so popular, and should you follow the elite in selecting them?
Ings stays top for now
Ings has enjoyed something of a breakout season with 15 goals and a mighty purple patch in 2019/20 and, as such, has won the backing of 92.7 per cent of elite bosses – but is it deserved?
Having become an unmissable bargain buy over Christmas, Ings has since scored just one in six, earning one bonus point in the same period.
His overall ownership has held, however, as well as his elite selection, with managers perhaps reluctant to let go of a player who notched 14 bonus points in one seven-game stint.
But the Englishman’s FPL reliability will have been called into question given he has played less than 45 minutes twice in his last six games.
Ings remains in the middle of a favourable run of Saints fixtures, which will have protected him from the managerial scythe, and his £7.2m price is still appealing.
But for just a few more pennies a manager could afford a player who has gone about his impressive business a little more quietly this season.
Raul the real deal
Raul Jimenez is an FPL manager’s dream, having played in every PL game for Wolves this season, scoring in such a way that he produces points without attracting the attention of everyone else.
Jimenez for example has 13 league goals this season, just four off Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Vardy, but only has one brace so far.
He tends to score in singles and doesn’t endure the sort of drought that would force an FPL manager’s hand either – his longest stretch without a goal is four games this season. His longest without a goal or assist is three.
Over a long season those consistent points returns add up to a useful total, especially for a player whose value hasn’t fluctuated too much around the £8m it is currently.
Jimenez chips in with bonus points too, having earned 23 this season, and has a run of four games coming up which the FPL’s Fixture Difficulty Ranking rates a two, the easiest ranking available.
The Mexican is backed by 72.7 per cent of elite managers – that’s 20 percentage points less than Ings – but his numbers suggest a chunk of the best bosses are missing out.
Vardy’s party over?
Vardy was another striker who enjoyed a run of form so hot he was too good not to buy, but an equally eye-catching barren spell has warned plenty off the Englishman.
Although he remains the league’s top goalscorer, Vardy has now gone 10 gameweeks without a goal, having registered just a solitary assist in that period.
His Threat scores have been equally poor, failing to post a Threat score of 50 or more since GW17, suggesting his run of poor form has not simply been down to luck.
The result is that Vardy’s ownership among top managers has dipped from over 90 per cent to under 50 per cent, his price going from £10.1m to £9.7m too.
Leicester don’t face a side from last season’s top six until GW34 now, so some might be hoping the 33-year-old’s party resumes shortly, but with a calf injury to contend with as well, now might be the time to cash in on Vardy.
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