FPL tips: Bottom sides show signs of life with impressive Threat

While Newcastle and Norwich were winless in gameweek 16 of the Premier League season, the stats show that there are still signs of life at the bottom of the table.

Threat is a metric introduced by the FPL to measure the quality of the chances a player enjoys in front of goal, with a score of around 100 usually accounting for a goal’s worth of chances.

By looking at how much Threat a team scored and allowed during a game, one can better understand whether their result aligned with the strength of their performance.

And in GW16 there were impressive performances at the bottom – as well as the top – of the league.

Relegation revival?

Both on 10 points after 16 games, Norwich and Newcastle have endured a miserable season so far, and defeats at the weekend did nothing to improve their league position.

However, despite a 1-0 defeat to Manchester United for Norwich and a 4-0 hammering by Leicester for Newcastle, both teams registered encouraging Threat scores.

The Canaries actually beat United by 220 to 160 for Threat, while the Magpies beat the Foxes by 198 to 129.

For Norwich this was just the second time this season they have managed to score more than 200 Threat in a game, while Newcastle’s Threat score was their third best of the campaign.

Neither side has a favourable run of fixtures over the festive period, but the new year will bring more winnable games which will be crucial for the survival chances of both teams.

For Newcastle, Allan Saint-Maximin was the leading Threat scorer against Leicester with 49.

At £6.7m the forward has the potential to be a bargain with three goals and four assists to his name – however, his current run of four blank gameweeks will not sit well with prospective managers.

Meanwhile over at Norwich, the leading Threat scorer in GW16 was defender Ozan Kabak with 52.

At £4.4m and 0.1 per cent ownership, Kabak’s return to the team was certainly an encouraging one, but his potential as a differential option depends on him nailing down a place in the side.

Striker Teemu Pukki leads the way for Threat at Carrow Road this season. At £5.9m and with five goals this term, he may be a better source of FPL points in the new year.

Top two in full flow

While the bottom sides are navigating choppy waters, it’s plain sailing so far for Manchester City and Liverpool.

Both have won their last five games and both dominated the Threat charts despite 1-0 wins against teams they were expected to beat.

City outscored Wolves by 355 to 43 in GW16 – their defence has conceded less than 100 Threat in 62.5 per cent of their games this season.

Liverpool meanwhile beat Aston Villa by 312 Threat to 56 – they have registered more than 200 Threat in 82.5 per cent of their games this term.

At City, the in-form man is Bernardo Silva who registered 70 Threat against Wolves and earned points for an assist.

The £7.7m midfielder ranks 12th for Creativity among midfielders and sixth for Threat.

At Liverpool, Mohamed Salah continues to rewrite the FPL record books – his last blank came in GW2.

With 103 Threat against Villa, the Egyptian now has 1119 Threat for the season as well as 14 goals and 10 assists.