FPL tips: Storm the Palace for cheap defensive differentials

Crystal Palace may be one of the best places to look for the next little-known defensive differential, according to the FPL’s Threat metric.

Threat was introduced to measure the quality of chances a player enjoys in front of goal, with a score of around 100 usually accounting for a goal’s worth of chances.

By analysing the amount of Threat scored and conceded by a team during a game, we can assess how well they are performing at both ends of the pitch.

And an impressive defensive score in gameweek 27 of the season capped a good five-game period for Patrick Vieira’s men.

Patrick’s Palace

Palace conceded just 50 Threat in their 1-1 draw against Burnley, the best defensive score of the gameweek.

They were unfortunate then not to keep a clean sheet, while their average score for Threat conceded over their last five league games is 97.6 – the only team to keep their season-average under 100 is Manchester City.

In that five-game period Vieira’s team has conceded four goals and lost just once, drawing three and winning one – their propensity for draws this season has stopped them from breaking into the top half of the table.

If Palace continue in this manner they can expect to continue to hold teams’ attacks at arm’s length – doing so would make any of their back line an enticing FPL prospect for managers.

Marc Guehi is the top-scoring FPL point scorer in defence at Selhurst Park this season with 78 points, while his low price (£4.5m) and low ownership (1.7 per cent) make him a low-risk option.

The 21-year-old has played 90 minutes in every league game but one this term, with two goals and six clean sheets to show for it.

Tyrick Mitchell meanwhile is the same price as Guehi (£4.5m) and has a similar ownership at 1.3 per cent – he has played in every league game and can boast two assists in that time.

Mitchell is the pick of the defensive bunch when it comes to Creativity at Palace, with a season total of 313.3 taking him almost 200 clear of the next-most creative defender at the club.

And for anyone interested in a cheap goalkeeper, Jack Butland (£4.4m and 0.4 per cent ownership) has replaced Vicente Guaita for the last two league games.

A few weeks earlier he impressed by making four saves, including one from the penalty spot, in a 1-1 draw against Brighton, taking all three bonus points and returning 11 FPL points for his small number of owners.

With Wolves, Manchester City and Newcastle up next, the Eagles’ defence will be tested by teams from all parts of the Premier League in the coming weeks.