How the Champions League round of 16 draw looks like shaping up after play-off first legs

Manchester City's name is drawn out in the Champions League league phase draw
The first leg of the play-off stage of the Champions League has given us some idea of who is likely to make it through to the round of 16 (Image credit: Getty Images)

The first leg of the Champions League play-off round threw up some surprises - and some sides already have one foot into the round of 16 after establishing commanding leads.

So with the second leg of those games still to follow, how does the draw for the next round look like shaking out? With the tracks already half-set, each side that progresses will go into the draw knowing they can only face one of two sides each, all of whom have already qualified by finishing in the top eight of the league phase.

Who is likely to play Liverpool and Tottenham in the Champions League round of 16?

Milos Kerkez squats, dejected, as Galatasaray celebrate in their victory over Liverpool

Galatasaray ran out victorious over Liverpool in Istanbul in the league phase (Image credit: Getty Images)

Unless they have a monumental nightmare in Turin, Galatasaray look set to face either Liverpool or Tottenham in the round of 16 after claiming a 5-2 home victory over Juventus in the first leg.

Liverpool might prefer to avoid that tie having lost 1-0 in Istanbul back in September. The alternative would be one of Club Brugge or Atletico Madrid, who drew 3-3 in the first leg of their play-off game in Belgium.

Arne Slot's side kicked off their Champions League campaign this season with a 3-2 victory over Atletico, while there would be real romance to a meeting with Club Brugge, who they last faced in the 1978 European Cup final at Wembley. Liverpool ran out 1-0 winners that day.

That said, Spurs also know what it's like to lose to Galatasaray, who beat them 3-2 in the Europa League league phase last season. They haven't faced Brugge since a UEFA Cup meeting in 2006, while their only prior meeting with Atletico came in the Cup Winners Cup all the way back in 1963.

Who is likely to play Arsenal in the Champions League round of 16?

Fans in the 'Yellow Wall' at Borussia Dortmund's Westfalenstadion, 2023

Arsenal could go up against the famous yellow wall in the round of 16 (Image credit: Alamy)

It's looking likely to be a Bundesliga side for Arsenal in the next round after 2-0 wins for both Borussia Dortmund (over Atalanta) and Bayer Leverkusen (over Olympiacos) in the play-off first leg.

Arsenal have never played a knockout game against either side: all of their eight prior meetings with Dortmund coming in the old group stage, while their only previous encounters with Bayer Leverkusen were in 2002 as part of the second group stage that was briefly in effect.

If the play-offs do indeed go the way of the German sides, then Bayern Munich will get whoever Arsenal don't.

Who is likely to play Chelsea in the Champions League round of 16?

Anthony Gordon scored four against Qarabag in the Champions League play-off round

Newcastle United are well on course to face either Chelsea or Barcelona (Image credit: Getty Images)

Newcastle United are almost certain to be one of the two possibilities after claiming a thumping 6-1 win away to Qarabag in the first leg of the play-offs. Chelsea and Newcastle have never faced each other in European competition before.

Newcastle could alternatively face Barcelona, who they have already played in the competition this season. Barca claimed a 2-1 win at St James' Park in September.

One of Monaco or PSG is the other possibility for Chelsea. PSG hold a 3-2 advantage over their Ligue 1 rivals, with a second leg in Paris still to come.

Chelsea suffered a surprise defeat over two legs to Monaco in the semi-finals of the 2004 Champions League in their only prior pairing. Chelsea were drawn with PSG in the knockouts three years in a row from 2014 to 2016, winning the first on away goals but losing out in the latter two.

Who is likely to play Manchester City in the Champions League round of 16?

Benfica boss Jose Mourinho could set up another head-to-head with Pep Guardiola

Pep vs Mourinho? Ah go on then (Image credit: Getty Images)

Safe to say it's going to be very interesting for Manchester City no matter what happens. (Sporting will get the other side of the draw here, for the record).

It could be another trip to the Arctic circle for Pep Guardiola's side after Bodo/Glimt claimed a 3-1 win over Inter in the first leg of the play-offs. That adds last season's finalists to the Norwegian side's impressive list of scalps this season after they also beat Atletico Madrid...and City themselves, who lost 3-1 to Bodo/Glimt last month.

The alternative for City? Either it'll be Real Madrid, who hold a slender 1-0 lead from the first leg of their play-off game; or the side they still need to get past in the second leg, Benfica. That's Jose Mourinho's Benfica, mind you, and we always have time for another Mourinho vs Guardiola encounter.

Watch Inter go and bloody ruin it now by getting through and drawing City.

Steven Chicken

Steven Chicken has been working as a football writer since 2009, taking in stints with Football365 and the Huddersfield Examiner. Steven still covers Huddersfield Town home and away for his own publication, WeAreTerriers.com. Steven is a two-time nominee for Regional Journalist of the Year at the prestigious British Sports Journalism Awards, making the shortlist in 2020 and 2023.

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