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FPL tips: Surprise Chelsea duo put Blues top of the Threat charts

Chelsea v Southampton – Premier League – Stamford Bridge
(Image credit: Tess Derry)

It was no surprise to see Chelsea turn Southampton over at the weekend, but the source of the damage was predicted by very few FPL bosses.

Threat is a metric introduced by the FPL to measure the quality of the chances a player enjoys in front of goal, with a score of around 100 usually accounting for a goal’s worth of chances.

By looking at how much Threat a team scored and allowed during a game, one can better understand whether their result aligned with the strength of their performance.

And Chelsea were more than worthy winners on Saturday.

A graphic showing the Threat scored and Threat conceded of each team in the Premier League in gameweek seven of the season

Timo to shine

Chelsea’s Timo Werner celebrates scoring their side’s second goal of the game before it being overturned by VAR during the Premier League match at Stamford Bridge, London. Picture date: Saturday October 2, 2021

(Tess Derry/PA)

Chelsea’s two most popular players among FPL managers are Romelu Lukaku (37.2 per cent) and Marcos Alonso (25.9 per cent) but neither made an impact at Stamford Bridge.

Lukaku, picked by thousands ahead of a kind run of fixtures for the Blues, managed just two FPL points, while Alonso – added by many as a direct replacement for the injured Trent Alexander-Arnold – missed out entirely.

Instead it was Timo Werner and Alonso’s replacement Ben Chilwell who cashed in as Thomas Tuchel’s side beat Saints 3-1, and by 323 to 71 in the Threat stakes.

The result won’t have brought smiles to the faces of most FPL managers though, with Lukaku and Alonso boasting a combined ownership of more than five million in gameweek seven.

Werner, who netted a goal and seven FPL points, and Chilwell, who added eight points thanks to a surprise goal, meanwhile were collectively owned by fewer than half a million bosses.

With four fixtures rated just two out of five for difficulty next for Chelsea, bosses will be questioning whether Lukaku and Alonso are the men to deliver big points in those games.

Bees abuzz

Brentford’s Yoane Wissa (11) and Ivan Toney (17) celebrate with team-mates after the Premier League match at the London Stadium, London. Picture date: Sunday October 3, 2021

(Tim Goode/PA)

While Brentford looked a picture of control in the early weeks of the season, their Threat totals hint at the emergence of a more chaotic team with goals to flow at both ends of the pitch.

The Bees have registered their two highest Threat scores of the season in the last two gameweeks, most recently scoring 199 in a 2-1 win over West Ham.

At the other end they have conceded more than 200 Threat in both of those games, having gone four games without conceding more than 108 in a single game.

Picking players with upcoming fixtures against the newly promoted side could produce dividends then, with the potential for goals galore – striker Ivan Toney, with two goals and two assists, could prove a bargain at £6.3m.

And at the back, while Pontus Jansson is part of a defence which looks unpredictable, he has registered three assists at the other end of the pitch.

Palace puzzler

Crystal Palace fans cheer on their team during the Premier League match at Selhurst Park, London. Picture date: Sunday October 3, 2021

(John Walton/PA)

Crystal Palace can probably consider themselves the most impressive team to have drawn during GW7 of the season, scoring 218 Threat against Leicester and conceding just 113.

Instead, Patrick Vieira’s side had to settle for a point which will taste all the sweeter having come from 2-0 down to draw 2-2.

Anyone looking for a Threat king at Palace might be interested in Connor Gallagher (£5.7m) who has two goals, three assists and ranks eighth among all midfielders in the league for Threat.

The Eagles take on Arsenal next, who – like Leicester – managed to come away with a point which Threat suggests was undeserved.

The Gunners were outscored by 193 to 102 against Brighton according to the metric – Vieira might fancy more than a point against the club at which he made his name.