Why England will definitely go through at Euro 2025 if they beat Wales and goal difference doesn't really matter

A glance at the Group D table would suggest that things are finely poised going into the final round of games on Sunday evening.

England will take on neighbours Wales while table-topping France take on the Netherlands.

France's 100% record gives them six points, with England and the Netherlands level on points with three each. Wales are yet to pick up a point and sit bottom of the group.

Why England can't finish behind both France and the Netherlands at Euro 2025

We will say off the top here that we're not assuming England will definitely beat Wales...but to avoid having to put an asterisk on it every time, let us suppose from here that's how things go.

That would set up a situation in which three teams could all finish the group with six points each. If England beat Wales and the Netherlands beat France, then England, France and the Netherlands will all have beaten Wales, plus won and lost a game each against each other.

In that situation, the Wales results will be disregarded entirely to determine who goes through out of England, France and the Netherlands. In effect, those three sides will be treated as if they had only played each other in a mini-league.

The key for the Lionesses is that they lost to France only narrowly (2-1) and then beat the Netherlands heavily (4-0) - and so there is no possible scenario that would give both France and the Netherlands a superior goal difference to England in the games between the three sides.

England will definitely finish with a goal difference of +3 from their games against the Netherlands and France, with five goals scored and two conceded. Remember, none of the results against Wales count for anything in this situation – so England's margin of victory on Sunday would not matter as long as they win.

So, for example: the Dutch would have to beat France 7-0 just to pull level on England on head-to-head goal difference.

But even that extremely unlikely scenario, that would mean France had a goal difference of -6 in the head-to-head standings, so France would be eliminated. The Netherlands would then come top of the group on goals scored (7 vs England's 5), and England would go through as runners-up.

A 1-0 victory for the Dutch, meanwhile, would leave the Netherlands with a head-to-head goal difference of -3 while France's would be an even-steven 0. In this case, England would top the group, France would come second, and the Netherlands would be eliminated.

What if England and the Netherlands both LOSE on Sunday?

And if France win...well, then England will be above the Netherlands on head-to-head record even if they lose to Wales.

We'd then be in the same situation when it comes to deciding who comes second to nine-point France in the group, as England, Wales and the Netherlands would all be on three points.

Holland would definitely finish this mini-league with a goal difference of -1, while England and Wales would go into Sunday with goal differences of +4 and -3, respectively.

That means that even in this situation, England would go through as runners-up as long as they held Wales to less than a four-goal margin of victory.

If France beat the Netherlands and Wales beat England 4-0 (or 5-1, or 5-0, or 6-2, or 6-1, etc), then Wales would go through alongside France.