FPL managers may well consider Threat when picking a striker, but which forwards are the most clinical when it comes to Threat per goal?
The metric, introduced by the FPL for the 2016-17 season, measures the quality of each chance a player has in front of goal, with a goal typically scored for every 100 Threat registered.
But the top strikers in the division don’t need quite so much Threat to find the back of the net.
The best players score goals when given half a chance, and the top three finishers since Threat was introduced (minimum 50 goals) take almost half as much Threat as the rest.
Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang leads the way, taking just 66.8 Threat for each of his 65 Premier League goals.
The £9.9million man has just one goal from 140 Threat so far this season, and is clearly suffering from the malaise which decimated Arsenal’s start to the season.
Should he rediscover his usual levels of performance however, at under £10m he could be difficult to ignore in the striker position.
In at two and three are Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane, whose slightly higher averages of 68.6 and 68.7 Threat per goal are offset by the fact they have scored considerably more goals than Auba since 2016-17.
Indeed, Vardy has scored 92 to the Arsenal man’s 65, while Kane has an astonishing 116, almost twice as many as his north London rival.
Vardy is in the better form this season, netting three goals at around 55 Threat per goal, while Kane has zero so far from 65 Threat.
With Arsenal up next – against whom he has scored 11 goals in 15 games – and being right on his Threat per goal average, could the Englishman launch his season against the Gunners?
Mane v Salah
Fans may be intrigued to note that Sadio Mane takes less Threat to score than his team-mate Mohamed Salah, the former netting 77 goals at 85.2 Threat per match since 2016-17, the latter scoring 99 at 88.9 Threat per match.
With more goals at a higher Threat rate, clearly Salah is more prolific when it comes to creating chances for himself, but when Mane does find himself in front of goal, he’s far from the mediocre finisher some fans believe him to be.
At £0.7m cheaper than his fellow Red, Mane appears an intriguing option, but potential managers should be aware he has scored three goals from 420 Threat this season, compared with Salah’s four goals from 388 Threat.
If Mane continues to rack up the Threat however (he is the number one-ranked midfielder in that regard this season) and maintains his finishing form of the last five seasons, he might just rival Salah at some point.
Champions in trouble
The departure of Sergio Aguero in the summer may hit Manchester City hard this season, with two players many City fans hope will fill the gap showing average finishing abilities according to Threat.
In the last five seasons since the metric was introduced, Gabriel Jesus has scored 51 goals at 99.4 Threat per goal, while Raheem Sterling has 73 goals at 104.6 Threat per goal.
Jesus has just one goal from 129 Threat this season and, it is safe to say, has yet to hit the heights many predicted upon his arrival in Manchester.
Sterling meanwhile has just one goal from 208 Threat in 2021-22. Between 2017-18 and 2019-20 he scored 55 goals from midfield, but he only managed 10 last season in the league.
One of these two will surely have to defy their finishing record of recent years if they are to drive City to defend their title.
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