Liverpool are the most promising attacking side in the Premier League so far this season, while Arsenal’s forward line finally rumbled into life in gameweek four.
Those statements are supported by an analysis of Threat, the FPL’s metric which measures the quality of chances in front of goal enjoyed by players and teams.
Around 100 Threat historically equates to a goal’s worth of chances, and by looking at how much Threat a team scored and allowed during a game, one can better understand whether their result aligned with the strength of their performance.
Liverpool’s 3-0 win against Leeds was well-earned, for example. The Reds managed 453 Threat in front of the Leeds goal and allowed just 140 in front of their own.
Jurgen Klopp’s team average almost 350 Threat scored per game this season, and have a total of 1393 Threat after four games – they lead the league in this regard, with Manchester City close behind with 1280.
And while Mohamed Salah is owned by more than half of all FPL managers at present, his team mate Sadio Mane has the highest Threat score of any player and is owned by just 2.7 per cent of bosses.
Mane is cheaper too at £11.9m and has notched two goals and an assist so far – he averages more than 90 Threat per game, hinting at plenty more goals to come, while Salah averages just under 70 Threat per game.
Managers who back Mane then might well find themselves with a premium differential player who looks set to continue scoring goals for the best attacking side in the league.
Arsenal meanwhile might be nowhere near Liverpool in terms of appeal, but did remind managers of their potential with the third highest Threat score of the season against Norwich.
The Gunners only scored one goal against the Canaries, but showed signs of life with a Threat score of 384 in their first win.
Anyone willing to take a chance on Mikel Arteta’s side might consider Bukayo Saka (£6.3m) who registered an individual Threat score of 104 in GW4, and managed five goals and five assists last term.
For £7.2m bosses could add Nicolas Pepe to their squad as well. Pepe has the highest share of Arsenal’s Threat scored this season (20.8 per cent) and managed 92 against Norwich.
Eight out of 10 of the Premier League fixtures in GW4 went the way of the team with the higher Threat score, while there was one draw – but one game bucked the trend.
Chelsea crushed Aston Villa 3-0 at Stamford Bridge, but the visitors outscored their hosts with 280 Threat to 114.
With 120 of those Threat points was Villa’s Ollie Watkins, who has also contributed more than a quarter of his team’s Threat all season.
At £7.3m, Watkins is owned by just 1.5 per cent of managers, and despite playing just 101 minutes so far in the PL, he is already outscoring his team mate Danny Ings when it comes to Threat.
A kind run of fixtures begins for Villa in GW8 – Watkins might be worth backing as a differential pick in that period.
