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FPL tips: FDR projections show to count on Leeds and Tottenham

FPL projection

Leeds and Tottenham head up the teams expected to provide Fantasy Premier League value in the remaining fixtures – with Liverpool’s seemingly easy run-in not paying full dividends.

We have used the game’s fixture difficulty rating (FDR) to work out each player’s average points in games against similar opposition and project their score over the final three gameweeks – here is who to count on.

Can star duo Spur a final push?

FPL projected points based on fixture difficulty - forwards

Harry Kane is projected for the most FPL points in the final three gameweeks (PA graphic)

Tottenham’s form has dipped of late but Harry Kane and Son Heung-min’s partnership remains productive and they are the only players projected for 20 points or more using this system.

Spurs have FDR2 games at home to Wolves and Aston Villa before a final-day trip to Leicester, rated FDR4. Kane has averaged 8.92 points in games rated less than three, with Son at 7.54, while in games rated higher than three the Korean has the edge at 5.33 to his team-mate’s 4.64.

That gives a projection of 22.5 points for Kane, best in the league, with Son just behind at 20.4 and coming off four goals in five games.

Serge Aurier is another Spurs player to consider – the £5.2million man is projected for 16.4 points, third among all defenders.

Marching on together

FPL projected points based on fixture difficulty - midfield

Son Heung-min is also tipped for over 20 points while Leeds are well represented in midfield (PA graphic)

A player using a very late wildcard based on these recommendations would have decisions to make over which Leeds players to leave out – Marcelo Bielsa’s team provide our second-ranked striker, the next two midfielders after Son, and the top defender and goalkeeper.

Patrick Bamford is the nearest challenger to Son and Kane with 18.5 projected points as Leeds occupy the next four positions in the overall rankings, with midfielders Jack Harrison and Raphinha sandwiching in-form defender Stuart Dallas.

With all of Leeds’ remaining games, against Burnley, Southampton and relegated West Brom, scoring two on FDR, goalkeeper Illan Meslier is projected for more than five points per game as his side offer options at every level of the pitch. The Clarets’ Nick Pope and West Ham’s Lukasz Fabianski are the other favoured keepers based on FDR.

City slickers

FPL projected points based on fixture difficulty - defence

Manchester City show up strongly behind leading defender Stuart Dallas (PA graphic)

Manchester City’s run-in is not particularly fancied by FDR, with the trip to Brighton rated three and Everton at home a four after this weekend’s FDR2 clash with Newcastle.

Such has been their dominance this season, though, that their players still rate highly in our projections – topped by John Stones, who has averaged 5.40 in games rated four or above and 8.78 – more than any player other than Kane – in FDR2 fixtures.

The top five defenders also include team-mate Joao Cancelo, with Ruben Dias just outside in sixth.

West Ham’s Vladimir Coufal is the other name in the top five but there is no Liverpool representation despite their all-FDR2 run-in against West Brom, Burnley and Crystal Palace (once they wrap up gameweek 35 against Manchester United).

Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold, Nathaniel Phillips and Andrew Robertson react after their draw with Newcastle

Liverpool’s defenders have under-performed in their theoretically easier games (Peter Powell/PA)

That is because their average points, curiously, are higher in tougher games on paper – Trent Alexander-Arnold, for example, averages 4.45 in games rated four or above compared to 3.92 in FDR2 games, while Andy Robertson has been at his most productive against FDR3 opposition.

City midfielders Ilkay Gundogan, Riyad Mahrez and Raheem Sterling also fare well in the rankings.

Best of the rest

Matheus Pereira, Bruno Fernandes and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, l-r

Matheus Pereira, Bruno Fernandes and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, l-r, could all finish strongly (Mike Egerton/Shaun Botterill/Justin Setterfield/PA)

Outside of those few clubs, there are a handful of other players well fancied in our projections.

Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin ranks third among strikers with 16.6 projected points, while in midfield, Newcastle’s Allan Saint-Maximin and West Brom’s Matheus Pereira’s hold strong appeal.

Finally, Bruno Fernandes is projected for 15 points after this week despite Manchester United’s unorthodox schedule including no fixture in gameweek 36.