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FPL tips: Round review says West Ham are the real deal

Leeds United v West Ham United – Premier League – Elland Road
(Image credit: Zac Goodwin)

West Ham continued their stellar season with a convincing win against Aston Villa, and while the goals demonstrate their prowess, the underlying data is also on their side.

Threat is a metric introduced by the FPL to measure the quality of the chances a player enjoys in front of goal, with a score of around 100 usually accounting for a goal’s worth of chances.

By looking at how much Threat a team scored and allowed during a game, one can better understand whether their result aligned with the strength of their performance.

And the Threat numbers show that the Hammers are worthy of the hammerings they are distributing.

A graphic showing the amount of Threat scored and conceded by Premier League teams in gameweek 10 of the season

Moyes’ men motoring

West Ham United’s Pablo Fornals (right) celebrates scoring their side’s third goal of the game with team-mate Declan Rice during the Premier League match at Villa Park, Birmingham. Picture date: Sunday October 31, 2021

(Nick Potts/PA)

Fourth in the Premier League and top of their Europa League group, West Ham are making football look relatively simple this season.

Their latest win against Aston Villa shows that, as winter approaches, they show no sign of slowing down, while the underlying data backs them up also.

David Moyes’ men notched a Threat total of 313 against Aston Villa, the highest of any team this week, while they conceded just 118.

A 4-1 scoreline then was justified, while their Threat average of 226.7 per game this season is the third best in the league at present.

Midfielder Jarrod Bowen was the main man in gameweek 10, the £6.3million midfielder scoring one and racking up 115 Threat against hapless Villa.

With two goals and four assists this season, Bowen ranks ninth for Creativity and third for Threat among midfielders.

City still shine

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola gestures on the touchline during the Premier League match at the Etihad Stadium, Manchester. Picture date: Saturday October 30, 2021

(Martin Rickett/PA)

A 2-0 home defeat for Manchester City against Crystal Palace leaves them five points off table-toppers Chelsea, but the scoreline only tells some of the story.

Pep Guardiola’s men were reduced to 10 men halfway through the fixture when defender Aymeric Laporte was sent off, but they still managed to outscore their opponents in the Threat charts by 231 to 80.

They have now registered a Threat score of more than 200 in 80 per cent of their games, the same rate as Liverpool, but problems persist.

Gabriel Jesus looked the most likely to score for the champions against Palace with 66 Threat, while Jack Grealish has 352 Threat so far this season.

Seven City players have scored multiple league goals this term, but Phil Foden leads the way in the goalscoring charts with just three.

While City’s attack looks far from toothless (20 goals scored in 10 games in 2021-22) they look to be missing a focal point up front.

Ramsdale resists

Arsenal goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale salutes the fans after the Premier League match at the King Power Stadium, Leicester. Picture date: Saturday October 30, 2021

(Zac Goodwin/PA)

Sometimes a strong Threat score comes up against a goalkeeper in the form of their life, and that is exactly what happened to Leicester at the weekend.

The Foxes outscored their opponents Arsenal by 226 Threat to 179 at the King Power Stadium, but eight saves from Aaron Ramsdale kept them from scoring.

Instead, Arsenal held onto a 2-0 lead for more than 70 minutes, despite Brendan Rodgers’ men hammering at the door for most of that time.

Harvey Barnes racked up 100 Threat as Leicester looked for a foothold, while Jamie Vardy failed to score for the second game running.

Recovering from a minor injury, Vardy remains top of the Threat charts at Leicester with 379 this season, but managed a score of just 14 against the Gunners.

Still backed by more than 30 per cent of managers, his team’s performances certainly suggest they will bounce back – will he be able to do the same?