Experts have cast doubt on FIFA’s claim that World Cup 2026 passed without any ‘suspicious betting activity’ or indications of match-fixing relating to any of the tournament’s 104 matches in June and July.
The governing body’s Integrity Task Force went public with its findings on Tuesday, celebrating a squeaky-clean tournament with no dodgy gambling issues.
Contradictory findings by the Group of Copenhagen, an independent body linked to the Council of Europe with a remit of preventing match-fixing in sport, were reported by The Athletic on Wednesday.
Group of Copenhagen flag seven in-game notices
The Group of Copenhagen report is due to be published soon but sources told The Athletic that ‘potential irregularities’ were flagged by its ‘integrity monitoring operation’ at the World Cup.
In all, seven yellow notices – instances raising “several different indications of [betting] irregularities” – resulted from the monitoring.
“The Group of Copenhagen’s notices can be explained by atypical behaviours such as changes in odds or hedging liquidities, there are many explanations that are not manipulations,” betting expert Christian Kalb told The Athletic.
“The major problem is when there may be a conflict of interest and potential inside information on those issues.
“When we speak of prediction markets, we can detect some unusual behaviours but we must be very careful as they can be used for hedging markets.”
The seven yellow notices reportedly included a market on whether Folarin Balogun would play for the United States against Belgium after he was sent off against Bosnia and Herzegovina with 14 other players sent off at the World Cup, and no similar markets observed.
The Group of Copenhagen has also flagged Themba Zwane’s red card in South Africa’s opening fixture against co-hosts Mexico and the lengthy VAR review that eventually disallowed Ferran Torres’ goal for Spain against Saudi Arabia in the group stage.
Polymarket, the cryptocurrency prediction market behind the flagged Balogun line, reportedly received more than £3.5 million in bets on Cape Verde beating or drawing with Spain in the group stage, a match that resulted in a shock 0-0 draw.
There’s no direct allegation that the seven notices demonstrate undue influence over matches, nor that the handful of matches ‘under increased surveillance’ in the last round of group stage fixtures raised the alarm.
“The Group of Copenhagen estimates that $240bn was placed in bets across the World Cup, approximately twice the amount from the 2022 World Cup in Qatar,” reports The Athletic.
The increase in betting is explained in part by the growth of the World Cup from 64 matches in 2022 to 104 matches in 2026 and such a vast total makes the prospect of irregularities inevitable almost by accident.
A total of even flagged examples is near enough par for the course in such a colossus of a tournament. FIFA’s own claim that no iffy betting patterns were observed is far from convincing on that basis alone.
