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The Championship season will conclude this weekend, and the sixth-placed play-off spot is yet to be decided in a neck-and-neck race between Wrexham, Hull City and Derby County.
Wrexham and Hull City are the two closest teams to securing a place in the play-offs, tied on 70 points heading into Gameweek 46 in the Championship, with Derby County on 69.
The former two sides are separated by a goal difference of just one — +4 for Wrexham and +3 for Hull — meaning it’s possible that both teams could finish on an equal points and goal difference total, but who would secure the last Championship play-off spot?
How will the final Championship play-off spot be decided?
Wrexham will take on fourth-placed Middlesbrough and Hull City will face off against ninth-placed Norwich in their final Championship games of the season.
If Wrexham win by one goal and Hull City win by two, both sides will be tied on 73 points and +5 goal difference in the final Championship table.
However, different permutations of both those outcomes mean significantly different things in the race for the sixth-placed play-off spot.
If Wrexham score just one goal in a 1-0 win, while Hull City score two in a 2-0 win, the latter will secure their place in the Championship play-offs on goals scored.
But if Wrexham score four goals in a 4-3 win, while Hull City’s scoreline remains the same at 2-0, then it’ll be the Ryan Reynolds-owned club heading to the play-offs.
This is because the final play-off spot will be decided first by points, then by goal difference, then by goals scored.
Similar to their goal difference, the disparity between goals scored for Wrexham and Hull City is just one goal - but this time in Hull's favour, having bagged 68 goals to Wrexham's 67.
Therefore, if Wrexham cannot maintain their goal difference lead, it appears a tall task for the Welsh side to reach the play-off promised land, being behind Hull City in the next two deciding metrics - ‘Goals Scored’ and ‘Head-to-Head Results’, having lost to Hull twice in the Championship this season.
The Tigers' favourable head-to-head record means in the event of a tie on points, goal difference and goals scored, it is the East Yorkshire club who enter the play-offs.
If Wrexham hope to qualify, they will need to win and preserve their goal difference lead over Hull City, or hope that their competitors drop points, as losing either will make it next to impossible for Ryan Reynolds' men to qualify barring a chaotic, high-scoring result like 4-3 in their favour.
Elsewhere, Derby County stand a chance with the most favourable fixture of the lot — against 15th-placed Sheffield United — but they will need to rely on both Wrexham and Hull dropping points to secure play-off football.
