What happens if Manchester City and Arsenal finish on the same points and goal difference?

Following last weekend’s clash between Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta’s men, the victor of the 2025/26 Premier League appears less clear-cut than ever.

Manchester City prevailed in a narrow 2-1 win over league leaders Arsenal at the Etihad, with goals coming from Rayan Cherki, Kai Havertz and Erling Haaland.

The game’s winning strike arrived in the 65th minute courtesy of Manchester City’s Norwegian bagsman, before Havertz missed the opportunity to level the tie in added time.

If the two sides finish level on points, who wins the Premier League?

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While the answer to this question may seem obvious, with title races having been decided by goal difference not too long ago in the Premier League’s past, it is less so with both sides tied in this deciding metric - +37 for Manchester City and +37 for Arsenal respectively.

Manchester City leapfrogged the Gunners on goals scored with a 1-0 away win at Burnley last night.

The criteria for deciding the title is first and foremost points won, followed by goal difference, then, in the event of a tie across both metrics, by goals scored.

Currently, Manchester City have scored 66 Premier League goals compared to Arsenal’s 63, meaning they would take the table’s top spot even with identical goal difference.

Pep Guardiola’s side have used their game-in-hand chip against a relegated Burnley, who have conceded the most goals in the Premier League this season with 68.

While a high-scoring, comprehensive victory for Manchester City always seemed likely, the Clarets limited the Cityzens to just one goal, rendering the title race even closer as we head into the final five matches.

If Arsenal match City’s results and close that relatively small goals scored gap, which is possible given the relative ease of their remaining fixtures, then the Premier League title would be decided by the head-to-head results between first and second place.

In this scenario, Manchester City would still lift the Premier League trophy courtesy of last weekend’s 2-1 win, with Arsenal only managing a 1-1 draw against the Cityzens at the Emirates.

In the event of a tied head-to-head record, a one-off game between first and second would take place, the 'Premier League Final', which cannot occur this season due to the already finalised fixture results.

Arsenal return to Premier League action at home against Newcastle on Saturday.