Team overview
By Rupert Fryer | @Rupert_Fryer |
Brazil arrives at Copa America Centenario with one eye focused elsewhere. The Selecao’s biggest priority for 2016 is to end its wait for Olympic gold.
Despite its long and concerted efforts, the CBF was unable to convince Barcelona to release Neymar for both competitions, and so he will sit out of the Copa in order to lead the charge at August’s Rio Olympic Games.
Coach Dunga has elected to take a young squad to the United States, with seven of the 23 of Olympic age. “I think we're taking a very competitive squad… providing experience to some Olympic players,” he said. “We have taken the opportunity to look at some new faces.”
That means it’s out with the old, with the likes of David Luiz - the second most-capped central defender under Dunga - dropped along with Kaka, Roberto Firmino, Oscar, Fernandinho and Danilo. Of Dunga’s 20- most-capped players since his July 2014 appointment, only nine have made his Copa squad.
Despite some high-profile omissions, Brazil has a relatively settled side, particularly following the recent emergence of creative midfielder Renato Augusto, who has stepped in to fill one of the few roles ostensibly up for grabs. The team’s biggest issue remains the lack of an established center forward.
Key player
The five-time world champions may well have already lost him. Brazil’s biggest problem since World Cup 2014 has been its overreliance on Neymar – an issue the team will be forced to confront at this tournament..
The Barca star has scored a quarter of the goals under Dunga despite having missed nearly a quarter of the games, mostly through suspension as his frustrations at carrying the attacking burden boiled over. Of the 41 goals from Dunga’s 22 matches, 23 were scored by players who have been left out of the Copa squad.
Who will carry the attacking burden in the absence of Neymar? Willian has played every game under Dunga and been his most consistent performer, but is yet to make create and score goals at anything like the rate of Neymar. Likewise, Douglas Costa has been in fine form but is yet to prove himself a true craque at international level.
The key, then, could yet be the form of Renato Augusto. A silky, cerebral playmaker who re-emerged from some serious injuries to star in the Corinthians side that romped to the league in 2015, he was Brazil’s best player in their last two World Cup qualifiers and scored a magnificent goal against Uruguay.
Devoid of their most potent attacking threat, Brazil’s quest for goals could yet rely on a 28-year-old who has just moved to Chinese club Beijing Guoan.
Manager Spotlight
Coach Dunga returned to Brazil at perhaps its all-time lowest ebb. While the 1950 World Cup defeat on home soil was labelled the nation’s greatest tragedy, the 7-1 shellacking at the hands of Germany in the 2014 World Cup semifinal was its greatest humiliation.
Local commentators insisted that what is now known simply as ‘the 7-1’ proved it was time for Brazilian soccer to do some long overdue soul-searching, to move away from an approach built on brute strength and counterattacks. Instead, the CBF reverted to type, bringing back the ultra-pragmatic Dunga, who led Brazil to a quarterfinal finish at the 2010 World Cup.
He got off to a fine start, marching to 10 consecutive friendly victories and conceding just two goals in the process, but the wheels came off in Chile at last year’s Copa when his side slumped to a quarterfinal defeat to Paraguay.
Dunga generally deploys a 4-2-3-1, which can morph into a 4-5-1 or 4-3-3, but he has thus far been unable to reproduce the reactive, reactionary and ultra-efficient counterattacking collective he formed in his first spell, and World Cup qualifying has not run as smoothly.
Dunga is a man under pressure. He is in line to lead the Selecao in Rio but a repeat of last year’s Copa showing could cost him his job, particularly with the shadow of Corinthians boss Tite looming ever larger.
Success Looks Like...
Brazil has an obligation to win every tournament it plays. However, a place in the final four and some more convincing performances overall would likely suffice. With a young squad, attentions on the upcoming home Olympics, and the acceptance that the Copa America Centenario itself is a little contrived, Brazilian fans may be slightly more forgiving than usual.
To see some encouraging signs from the jogadores olimpicos ahead of a second must-win competition on home soil in two years will earn some otherwise hard-won brownie points. Moreover, the press could be sympathetic should Brazil find answers to its biggest issues in attack.
The biggest tactical shift under Dunga has been the introduction of a false No. 9, but he is yet to fill that role as Brazilian soccer suffers a serious dearth of central-attacking talent. The 36-year-old Ricardo Oliveira is the favorite to start up front, but uncapped Santos starlet Gabigol could provide an interesting alternative. The decision to leave in-form Benfica forward Jonas out of the squad, however, could come back to haunt Dunga.
Losing a final is an unforgivable crime in Brazil, so some positive showings and a semifinal finish would likely retain enough optimism to keep the current boss on the bench and build a little momentum ahead of Rio.
Failure Looks Like...
Losing ugly. Between 2006-2010, Dunga’s Brazil won the 2007 Copa America – with a squad made up mostly of reserves – cruised through a gruelling World Cup qualifying campaign and claimed the 2009 Confederations Cup. It wasn’t pretty – the style as far from Jogo Bonito as any Brazil side has been since the early 1980’s – but it was effective.
Two slip-ups from goalkeeper Julio Cesar and a suicidal performance from Felipe Melo against the Dutch at the 2010 World Cup, however, brutally exposed the side’s flaws, with the team unable to find an answer when it went behind for the first time in the competition.
Make no mistake: the overwhelming majority of Brazilian football fans care only that the team wins. But, even in Brazil, overtly pragmatic approaches to soccer are tolerated only for as long as the victories last. Futebol do resultados is useless if it produces no results. Dunga once described the great 1982 Brazil team as ‘beautiful losers’. The only thing worse than losing beautifully is losing ugly.
