FPL tips: Crystal Palace defy threat stats while Luke Shaw keeps delivering

Fantasy Premier League’s Threat ratings can help you plan your line-up – but be aware that players’ efforts are not always rewarded.

That fact was on full display in Crystal Palace’s win over fierce rivals Brighton on Monday evening, the biggest upset of the season by a team over the threat statistics.

Here, the PA news agency breaks down what else we learned from gameweek 25 after one match for each team.

Palace pinch one

Historical analysis shows that around 100 points of threat typically equates to one goal, so in theory Palace’s 2-1 win should see them around the 200 mark to 100 for Brighton.

Instead, it was the Seagulls who topped the week’s standings outright – prior to the Tuesday-night game between Leeds and Southampton, to ensure a level playing field – with 351.

Palace managed just three shots and 51 threat points as a team, meaning even a conservative reading of the numbers would suggest a 3-1 Brighton win, while Christian Benteke‘s late winner came despite the forward earning just 18 threat points individually – fellow goalscorer Jean-Philippe Mateta had their other 33.

Leandro Trossard (66) and Danny Welbeck (63) each exceeded Palace’s total on their own and the 300-point discrepancy in favour of the losing team was the biggest this season – the previous highest was Manchester City’s defeat to Tottenham in gameweek nine, when they outgunned Spurs 339-56 but lost 2-0.

Wolves also lucky but Manchester sides show class

But for Monday’s assault on logic, Leeds fans would be counting themselves the unluckiest this week after their 1-0 loss to Wolves – the midlands side’s tally matched their 131 points of threat but Marcelo Bielsa’s men more than doubled that and would be thinking they could have scored three, even without considering Patrick Bamford’s disallowed goal.

Liam Cooper was the unlikely figure leading the charge – his 88 points of threat led all players this week, even before Tuesday’s second outing. Having also accrued 65 in gameweek 21, the £4.3million defender is regularly threatening his second goal of the campaign.

The next widest margins this week favoured Manchester City and Manchester United, who capitalised by respectively beating Arsenal 1-0 and Newcastle 3-1. City’s Raheem Sterling was good value for his goal with 82 threat points.

A Shaw thing?

Creativity is the equivalent of the Threat metric but indicating the likelihood of assists, and United’s win continued a promising trend for full-back Luke Shaw.

His 77 creativity points trailed only Leeds winger Raphinha, who had 89 in his first outing of the week.

Helped by taking corners, Shaw has recorded over 50 creativity points in three of his last four games and double figures for 13 straight games, averaging 43 over that stretch – a £5.1m defender with an expectation of two assists every five games makes for a tempting proposition, especially ahead of a double gameweek.

Leicester midfielder Harvey Barnes enjoyed 51 points of threat and 47 of creativity as he contributed a goal and an assist for the second successive gameweek.