FPL tips: Goalless Gunners a concern for fantasy managers

Arsenal’s lean January form in front of goal may be of serious concern to millions of FPL managers.

The Gunners were unable to put a single goal past bottom-of-the-league Burnley at the Emirates despite a dominant Threat score, drawing 0-0.

Threat is a metric introduced by the FPL to measure the quality of the chances a player enjoys in front of goal, with a score of around 100 usually accounting for a goal’s worth of chances.

By looking at how much Threat a team scored and allowed during a game, one can better understand whether their result aligned with the strength of their performance.

After scoring just one goal in January, Arsenal’s inability to convert a dominant Threat performance into goals will be worrying for FPL bosses backing Arsenal’s finest.

Gunners misfire

Arsenal are on a run of four games without scoring a goal in all competitions, drawing 0-0 against Burnley in the league, losing 2-0 over two legs to Liverpool in the Carabao Cup semi-final and crashing out of the FA Cup after a 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest.

The Gunners outscored Sean Dyche’s team by 247 to 84 at the weekend – such a Threat score would usually warrant a couple of goals, if not more.

A difference in Threat like that would suggest a team was unlucky in some cases, but if January is anything to go by then Arsenal may have genuine problems to solve in attack.

If that proves to be the case, their two most popular outfield players – Emile Smith Rowe and Bukayo Saka – might start to lose the faith of FPL managers.

Smith Rowe is owned by more than 16 per cent of the nearly nine million FPL bosses that play the game, while Saka is owned by 15 per cent.

Saka is Arsenal’s leading Threat scorer, with 671 so far, and has four goals in his last five games.

Smith Rowe is the top goalscorer in the league for the club in 2021-22, his eight goals coming at great value for a £5.9m midfielder.

Mikel Arteta’s team managed nine goals either side of Christmas against Leeds and Norwich, but FPL bosses will not be patient with the Gunners’ best talents if the goal drought continues.

Unlucky losers

Arsenal were not the only team that failed to convert their performance into a result – Everton, Brentford and Watford all managed to lose despite dominant efforts.

The Toffees lost 1-0 to Steven Gerrard’s Aston Villa despite outscoring their opponents by 171 to 84 in the Threat charts.

Brentford lost 2-1 to Wolves despite notching 160 Threat to their opponents’ 72, while Watford were stunned by Norwich, the visitors managing a 3-0 win despite registering only 93 Threat.

Winning scores of 2-1 would not have been undeserved for all three losing sides then, but while good Threat scores will be little consolation to their fans, FPL managers with the likes of Demarai Gray or Ivan Toney in their squads may find solace in the data.

More than 10 per cent of bosses have Gray in their side, but the Everton attacker has failed to return a goal or an assist in his last four games – he has however registered Threat scores of 63, 31 and 34 in his last three appearances.

Toney is also backed by around 10 per cent of managers, but unlike Gray his form (two goals in two games) will please those who have invested in him.