The Italians, who had secured a spot in next year's finals with two games to spare, took a first-minute lead through midfielder Claudio Marchisio before Branislav Ivanovic levelled midway through the first half.
The match passed off peacefully after Serbia lost the reverse fixture in Genoa by a 3-0 walkover because of crowd trouble.
The midfielder took Rossi's pass in his stride and easily rounded Serbia centre-back Slobodan Rajkovic before he steered the ball past keeper Bojan Jorgacevic.
Kolarov twice had Buffon at full stretch in the second half and striker Marko Pantelic headed Ivanovic's cross inches over the crossbar as Serbia dominated proceedings after the interval, although Italy enjoyed more possession in the closing stages.
Having realised that the Estonians had turned the match in Belfast on its head, Serbia's coach Vladimir Petrovic threw on three forwards in the last 10 minutes, searching for a win that would have sealed Serbia's play-off berth.
"It's a difficult situation now because we have to win in Slovenia but I am happy with the result against Italy and the commitment the players showed because we played against a very strong team," Petrovic told a news conference.
"I expected more from Krasic and Tosic but the Italians defended very well and it was not easy to respond the way we did after falling behind in the first minute," he said.
Italy coach Cesare Prandelli was happy with his team's performance.
"The players showed a lot of character and we played well on a very difficult pitch, but we know that we have to improve in many departments if we are to be one of the title contenders in next year's finals," he said.
"We are not the best team in the world but we will keep working hard to get better and we have the will-power to achieve these objectives."
