FPL tips: Predicting where your bonus points can come from

Bonus points are a way to add value to your Fantasy Premier League team – but can you predict where they are coming from?

In addition to the regular scoring events – goals, assists, clean sheets etc – points are awarded in the bonus points system (BPS) for pass completion, chance creation, dribbles, tackles and a host of other actions, with deductions for negative contributions such as fouls, missed chances and defensive errors.

The top three scorers in each match earn three, two and one point respectively, with an average of 42 BPS needed for top marks, 33 for two points and 28 for one.

Using those figures, we can pick out players who appear due for an increase in bonus points as well as those whose performance does not back up their total.

Feeling the Blues?

The most striking thing about the under-achievers chart is the presence of three Chelsea players in the top five – should you therefore make a move on the Blues expecting future dividends?

Thiago Silva has been unluckiest of all, collecting only one bonus point all season compared to an expectation of just over four on the veteran defender’s scores in the BPS.

Ben Chilwell collected a maximum three bonus points against West Brom but our data suggests he could have had 5.6 in all, while Mason Mount has two against an expected 4.42.

Be cautious, though, if considering a transfer move on this basis – the trio have tended to collect BPS points in strong team performances, a pattern which could easily continue.

A prime example was October’s 3-0 win over Burnley, in which goalscorers Hakim Ziyech, Kurt Zouma and Timo Werner took the bonus points. Mount notched 33 on the BPS – just one behind Werner – Silva had 30 and Chilwell 25, scores which have respectively earned an average of 1.79, 1.27 and 0.36 bonus points but came up empty.

Aston Villa midfielder John McGinn splits Silva and Chilwell with two bonus points against an expected 4.6 – the Scot scored 46 BPS against Liverpool, which would have won him maximum points in 69 per cent of games this season but was lost in Villa’s staggering 7-2 win behind Jack Grealish, with a season-high 90, Ollie Watkins and Liverpool goalscorer Mohamed Salah.

Southampton defender Jannik Vestergaard is fourth on the under-achievers list with just one bonus point rather than 3.5.

Not such a Sterling effort

Raheem Sterling has five bonus points for Manchester City this season but that performance appears unsustainable, with his expected figure sitting at just 1.13.

He scooped top honours when scoring in the 1-0 win over Arsenal but had just 28 BPS, a score which has averaged 0.91 bonus points this season, and added two points against Leeds with 21 BPS – an expected 0.12. The England forward even contrived a BPS score of -4 in the defeat to Leicester.

Team-mate Joao Cancelo is third among over-achievers, with six bonus points against an expected 2.29 – perhaps the key is to search for City players who can pick up cheap bonus points.

Wolves defender Romain Saiss has seven bonus points against an expected 3.28 to edge ahead of Cancelo on the list, while West Ham’s Vladimir Coufal and Crystal Palace midfielder Wilfried Zaha complete the top five.

Brighton’s Alexis Mac Allister also deserves a special mention for his three bonus points against Crystal Palace. The Argentinian had just 22 BPS, which would have failed to earn him any bonus points in 88 per cent of games this season.