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FPL tips: Chelsea show Arsenal how to convert Threat into victories

Arsenal v Brighton and Hove Albion – Premier League – Emirates Stadium
(Image credit: Aaron Chown)

Chelsea and Arsenal both put in similarly dominant performances this weekend according to one FPL metric, but found themselves on the end of very different results.

Threat is a metric introduced by the FPL to measure the quality of the opportunities a player enjoys in front of goal, with a score of around 100 usually accounting for a goal’s worth of chances.

By totalling the Threat scores of an entire team it is possible to see how much Threat a team scored and conceded in any given game.

The below chart shows that Arsenal and Chelsea both scored more than 300 Threat in attack and conceded less than 100 Threat in defence during gameweek 32.

A graphic showing the amount of Threat scored and conceded by Premier League teams in gameweek 32

Such performances suggest 3-0 wins would not have been undeserved for either side, but in reality their results could not have been more different.

The Gunners lost 2-1 at home to Brighton, while the Blues ran out 6-0 winners at Southampton to tighten their grip on a Champions League spot.

For Arsenal, Gabriel Martinelli top scored with a Threat score of 75 but saw his one successful effort on target disallowed.

For Chelsea, Timo Werner registered a Threat score of 115 and was rewarded with a brace and 15 FPL points.

Brighton managed to score the two goals required to take all three points at the Emirates Stadium despite their top Threat scorer being Leandro Trossard with 19 Threat.

The Blues meanwhile kept their third clean sheet in five matches by restricting Southampton’s top Threat scorer this season, Che Adams, to just 37 Threat.

Chelsea’s Timo Werner celebrates after scoring their side’s fifth goal of the game during the Premier League match at St. Mary’s Stadium, Southampton. Picture date: Saturday April 9, 2022

(Kieran Cleeves/PA)

While creating opportunities that score highly for Threat increases a team’s chances of hitting the back of the net, they must still have the quality to convert Threat into goals.

Likewise, competence is essential in ensuring that opponents’ low Threat scores are converted into clean sheets.

Comparing the recent form of Arsenal and Chelsea shows that one of these teams has mastered the art of capitalising on positive Threat, while the other lacks the ruthlessness required at present.

In their last five league appearances, Mikel Arteta’s team has scored 1,017 Threat and conceded 464, while Thomas Tuchel’s side has scored 1,164 Threat and conceded 545.

Arsenal’s Threat difference then stands at +553 in that period while Chelsea’s is +619.

But while both teams’ performances over the last five games are comparable, Arsenal have scored four and conceded seven while Chelsea have scored 15 and conceded five.

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta after the Premier League match at the Emirates Stadium, London. Picture date: Saturday April 9, 2022

(Aaron Chown/PA)

Furthermore, the Blues have won four of their last five league games – the Gunners have managed just two wins and three defeats in their five most recent matches.

Bukayo Saka is Arsenal’s top Threat scorer this term with 1,087 and nine league goals – he has scored once in his last five games off the back of 210 Threat.

Chelsea’s Kai Havertz has scored five times as many goals as Saka in the same period, despite a Threat total in that time of 305, around 50 per cent better than the England midfielder.

For FPL managers using Threat to decide which players to back, the Blues are mastering the art of getting the most from the metric.

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