England expects – but is it wise to do so?

Anybody who wants to predict the future of European football should remember the cautionary tale of the Sydney Opera House.

The makers of this gorgeous building thought it would cost $7m. They ended up spending a munificent $104m â on a cut down version of the original design.

In his thought-provoking, self-congratulatory bestseller The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleeb points out that our models of the future are always undermined by three flaws: we are never in possession of all the information, very small variations can have a huge impact (the butterfly effect) and we cannot account for events which have never taken place before.

So, bearing TaleebâÂÂs cautions in mind, if all four English teams reach the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League this week, does this mean the Premier League will reign forever?

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