FFT's John Robertson was in the Emirates press box to analyse Arsenal's 1-0 win over Newcastle using Stats Zone – FREE on iOS and Android...
Until the goal, Arsenal looked to have few ideas
Arsenal might have won, but a convincing victory it most certainly wasn’t. Although they created bursts of scoring opportunities at the start of each half, they also endured sustained periods in which chances seemed to be the least likely thing to be crafted from their midfield.
In the 72 minutes up until Laurent Koscielny’s winning goal – scored thanks to a defensive mistake courtesy of Ayoze Perez during a corner – Arsenal crafted themselves just 10 shots… 2 of them on target.
By comparison, over the same period Newcastle forced 5 saves out of Petr Cech from 11 shots.
Following the goal, however, the atmosphere changed and Arsenal created more clear-cut opportunities. Although only 1 of their 6 shots in the final 18 minutes is registered as being on target, that number doesn’t tell the full story.
Both Mesut Ozil and Aaron Ramsey found themselves with excellent views of the goal and should have done more to trouble Rob Elliot’s goal. Ramsey, especially, will surely be enormously disappointed that he didn’t double his team’s lead with minutes to go following a jinking run in the box that utterly befuddled Newcastle’s defence.
His shot went wide of the target, an outcome that rather summed up Arsenal’s attacking output across the game.
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Over-reliance on Ramsey?
There can be little doubt that Ramsey has been one of Arsene Wenger’s most outstanding talents over the past few months, but off the back of today’s performance you could begin to make a case for the idea that the Welshman is being relied upon too much.
Thanks to the tireless work of Jack Colback and Chieck Tiote in constantly hassling Arsenal in the middle of the park, Ramsey found it almost impossible to take possession in central areas. Moving out towards the flanks became his only real means of picking up the ball, ridding him of much of the impact he has enjoyed in recent matches.
His lack of chances created put even more pressure than usual on Mesut Ozil to make something happen, this narrow outlook allowing Newcastle to enjoy more certainty when it came to positioning themselves defensively.
Without Ramsey in possession and driving forward, which triggers midfielders and defenders to step out of position to nullify him, Arsenal had to rely frequently on hopeful balls into the box to apply any sort of pressure. As noted above, things improved slightly after the goal but this was not the kind of offensive system we’ve come to expect from Wenger over the years.
Clearly, a rethought backup plan is required for teams that manage to limit Ramsey’s involvement.
The Magpies’ defensive renaissance continues In the five games since their humbling 5-1 defeat to Crystal Palace in November, Newcastle have conceded just four goals. Today against Arsenal their impressive defence turnaround continued, their undoing coming at the hands of a set-piece due to an individual error from one of their own. As a collective, there looks to be very little wrong with their ability to prevent goals.
Tackling statistics can be misleading, particularly as a tool to suggest that one team is ‘better’ at defending than another. The very act of tackling typically indicates that possession has already been lost and, therefore, a mistake already been made. Often, then, a tackle is a hazardous fix to an existing problem.
Here, however, the comparative tackling results across both teams are revealing. Newcastle simultaneously made more tackles than Arsenal and attempted fewer, indicating a much superior ability to wrestle the ball away in comparison to their hosts when the act becomes essential. The level of efficiency also suggests that McClaren’s team today made better decisions when it came to selecting which moments to attempt a tackle.
The story is similar when it comes to interceptions, Newcastle outdoing Arsenal again.
However, the real secret behind Newcastle’s defensive improvements is a passing game that very rarely causes problems for itself. Keeping the ball is, after all, the best means of defence.
If Newcastle can add more goals to their game, they should find themselves moving quickly up the table.
Newcastle's solid passing needs to come out from the back
With 387 completed passes compared to Arsenal’s 404, Newcastle came to the Emirates with a vision of beating the Gunners at their own game. As both teams finished the game with a pass accuracy of 85%, it can be said that they came showed teams can indeed come to Arsenal and take control.
Particularly in defence, Steve McClaren set his players up with possession in mind – all four members of the back line resisting the urge to simply clear the ball long towards a frontman.
However, Newcastle failed enormously when it came to catching Arsenal out with balls kept on the ground. With possession in their own half, they simply didn’t show enough creativity to keep their front players regularly serviced in dangerous positions. As a result, their ambition changed as the game wore on to favour a simpler approach dedicated to getting the ball wide as quickly as possible.
That failure to move forwards under their own rules, despite their impressive completion percentage, is demonstrated by the number of backwards passes they played. Whilst keeping control of the ball is of undoubted importance, it’s difficult to put your opposition under consistent pressure if you regularly play so many backward passes to your centre backs.
In every instance, Arsenal were provided time to settle back into their preferred defensive system.
Tiote had a wonderful game overall, especially when Newcastle were without the ball, but he was the biggest culprit when it came to relying on negative passes. The two most regular receivers of his passes were centre-backs Fabricio Coloccini and Chancel Mbemba… all but three of the passes to both combined being backwards.
While it’s true that Arsenal concentrated more on pressing Newcastle’s midfielders than they did their defenders, McClaren will surely still be unhappy at the lack of forward vision shown by one of his primary midfielders.
Koscielny becoming increasing vital
While Newcastle were very unlucky to lose, there is some justice to be gleaned from it being Laurent Koscielny that came up with the winning goal. As with almost every other act that he was involved in throughout the game, the defender reacted more quickly to the goalmouth action than his marker, Perez, for the goal and comfortably slotted home his opportunity.
His impressive numbers – 6 ball recoveries, 4 interceptions, 2 aerial duels won and 5 clearances – only tell part of the story; it’s his positioning that is most impressive. Over the course of the game he made just two tackles, coming out on top in both of them. This highlights not just an ability to time his challenges correctly, but to position himself in such a way so as not to have to rely on making them (and potentially giving away a foul) too often.
Newcastle employed an unusual blend of counter-attacking and possession-based forward passes throughout much of the game, but not once was Koscielny found out of position when the ball made it into the feet of forwards Perez and Aleksandar Mitrovic, or midfield danger-man Georgino Wijnaldum.
The outcome was always a Newcastle player having to attempt a difficult pass through Koscielny in order to find his target, oftentimes while Per Mertesacker moved in to provide extra pressure.
Keeping Koscielny fit and in form looks increasing vital for Arsenal if they are going to remain top of the table come May.
Match stats
Arsenal have won 9 successive Premier League games against Newcastle – their joint second-best winning run against a Premier League side (11 v Man City, 9 v West Ham).
Newcastle have scored just 6 goals in their last 16 Premier League away trips.
Laurent Koscielny has scored 3 goals against Newcastle, more than he has any other Premier League opponent.
Arsene Wenger has won 11 of his 12 Premier League meetings with Steve McClaren, losing the other.
The Mapgies have lost their last 3 Premier League games by a 1-0 scoreline, with each goal coming later than the 71st minute.
Olivier Giroud has provided an assist in each of his last 2 games, having gone 27 games without one prior to that.
The Gunners are unbeaten in 9 Premier League home games, winning 7 and drawing 2.
Newcastle recorded 15 shots (including blocked) against Arsenal, only against Sunderland (21) have they had more in a Premier League match this season.
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