Nothing derails a gameweek plan quite like a injury to a key forward. Joao Pedro (£7.8m) is out for a few weeks, so it is time to find a new route into the front line. Here is how I would handle it.
The latest on Joao Pedro is that he missed the weekend game against Spurs, and Xabi Alonso did not offer much hope afterwards. “He has an injury on his thigh," explained the Chelsea manager, "and he is going to be a few weeks out. Let’s see how many. We don’t want to predict on that, but not ready for the next games.”
That is about as clear as it gets without a firm return date. Two weeks looks like the minimum, and nobody at Chelsea is willing to put a number on it.
Keep or sell?
For most managers, this is a sell. Two weeks out is the minimum, and when he does come back, Chelsea will be playing midweek Premier League games, which makes his minutes hard to trust.
With strong alternatives sitting at lower prices, there is little reason to wait. The one case for keeping him is if you only have a single free transfer and more urgent problems elsewhere in the squad, but that is rare. Here are my recommendations for his replacements...
Thierno Barry (£5.6m)
He is my number one, and I am buying him myself this week. Only Haaland has registered more expected goals (xG) and big chances in the league this season, and at £5.6m he frees up money for other areas of the team while being easy to rotate as an eighth attacker. People say he cannot finish, yet he scored eight goals from roughly 8.5 expected goals last season, which is hardly poor. Penalties could come his way, though the price is the real selling point. Newcastle and Coventry are next, and he scored and assisted against Newcastle in the EFL Cup last night. With no European football to worry about, his minutes should stay steady.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.1m)
If you already have Barry, Calvert-Lewin is the next best move. He takes penalties, rarely gets taken off early and has no doubts over his place. Bournemouth, Spurs, Coventry and Ipswich make up four of Leeds’ next six, and he is a possible captain option in Gameweek 12. No European games, again, is a big plus.
Nicolas Jackson (£6.8m)
Jackson is the template move, with more than a million managers bringing him in this week. Fulham, Manchester United, Sunderland and Ipswich is a strong run, and he arrives in form after scoring twice against Manchester City. European commitments are not ideal, but there are few worries over whether he will play.
Evanilson (£6.2m)
Three league goals in a row show he is in a rich vein of form. Leeds, Ipswich, Forest, Fulham and Hull in five of Bournemouth’s next six is a decent schedule, and unlike last year, his minutes have been surprisingly solid. The worry is later on. Kroupi Jr is available again, midweek league games will come into play soon, and there’s also European football to juggle with. That may cause his minutes to become murkier after the international break.
Alexander Isak (£9.1m)
He is fifth purely because of the price tag, not because he is a bad pick. His minutes should be safe, and with Dominik Szoboszlai still out, he is probably on penalties, though that is likely short-lived, as Szoboszlai is due back soon. Arsenal this week is not the friendliest entry point. A reasonable pick, but not one I would choose at that cost.
Final thoughts
The order above is how I rank them. Barry offers the best value, Calvert-Lewin is the safest alternative and Jackson is the popular choice. Evanilson is a decent mid-price option with some risk later on and Isak is a quality player who is expensive. Whoever you go for, ideally sell Pedro rather than wait.
