Newcastle aren't at their best, but let's not call it a crisis: Why the data is telling us to back Matthias Jaissle

Replacing a club legend is never easy, especially when overseeing a major squad rebuild. But despite losing key figures like Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, Anthony Gordon and Kieran Trippier, Matthias Jaissle has guided Newcastle United to eighth in the Premier League, two points behind fifth-placed Chelsea.

For a club that has played Champions League football in two of the last three seasons, expectations remain considerably higher. Newcastle's inconsistent results have raised questions about their progress under Jaissle, but beneath the surface, there are promising signs that the German is laying the bedrock for a new era.

Newcastle recorded the Premier League's sixth-best expected goals against (50.95) but conceded 55 goals last season, the sixth-worst tally in the division, and finished 12th. Jaissle initially struggled to address those weaknesses, conceding eight goals in his first four league matches and two against West Bromwich Albion in the EFL Cup.

Matthias Jaissle has improved Newcastle’s midfield and defense, but attack is a different story

However, the underlying numbers suggest a marked improvement. According to Gradient Sports, Newcastle ranked 19th in the Premier League for tackling and duel performance across the opening four weeks of the season. Over the next four weeks, they climbed to seventh and sixth, respectively, while their positioning ranking jumped from 13th to third.

Newcastle's center backs rose from 16th to eighth in average overall performance grade, their fullbacks from fourth to first, and their aerial duels from eighth to first. These upgrades suggest a more cohesive defensive unit, but individual shortcomings remain a concern: Sven Botman has committed a league-high five errors leading to shots this season.

There has been progress in midfield, too. With Guimarães and Tonali gone, Lewis Miley has assumed greater responsibility, improving his average grade by 11.15 points between the opening four weeks and the following four. Nico González's grade has also increased by 9.20 points over the same period.

But while Jaissle has improved the team's defense and midfield, attack is another story. Newcastle's wingers have dropped from ninth to 18th in average performance between the two four-week periods, while their center forwards climbed from 19th to 18th. Newcastle also rank 16th for expected goals per match and chance quality, and joint 13th for shots.

The successive departures of Alexander Isak and Gordon have deprived Newcastle of two major attacking weapons, and their replacements have struggled to fill the void. Jaissle has fortified their defensive base, but he has yet to develop an attacking structure capable of creating gilt-edged chances, and he is yet to find his strongest team.

Nevertheless, last weekend's trip to Crystal Palace offered plenty of reason for optimism. After three defeats in four matches, Jaissle made five changes to his starting XI, replacing Botman and Malick Thiaw with Dan Burn and Fabian Schär, while restoring Amar Dedić, Jacob Murphy and William Osula to the lineup.

These changes paid dividends. Burn and Schär helped the Magpies secure their first clean sheet in two months, while Murphy and Dedić assisted goals for Osula and Harvey Barnes. And instead of dropping between the center backs, González operated further forward and was more involved in Newcastle's attacking buildup.

After a subdued first half, Newcastle showed more urgency in exploiting turnovers and scored twice in the first 13 minutes after the restart. It offered a glimpse of what they could look like if Jaissle can fix an attack that has been declining since Eddie Howe's last year in charge. However, Thursday's defeat to Everton served as a reminder of the inconsistency that continues to plague their growth.

Unlike at Red Bull Salzburg and Al-Ahli, where he enjoyed substantial financial backing and squads capable of competing for silverware, Jaissle is now overseeing a Newcastle team in transition. With several established starters gone and their replacements still finding their feet, this is undoubtedly a work in progress.

It would be premature to call the Palace victory a turning point, but the data suggests that Jaissle is gradually building a stronger foundation. Whether they can translate that progress into a sustained push for European qualification will depend on solving the problem that has persisted throughout his tenure: making Newcastle lethal in the final third.

Data via Gradient Sports