The Republic of Ireland need to lose against the Netherlands next month to have any chance of qualifying for Euro 2024.
The Boys in Green lit fourth in Group B and have already missed out on automatic qualification for next summer's tournament in Germany.
But they can still qualify. And bizarrely, defeat to Ronald Koeman's side in Amsterdam on November 18th will keep their hopes alive.
That's because 12 teams will compete for three play-off places next March, with those selected based on their performance in the 2022-23 edition of the Nations League.
Any teams from Leagues A, B and C that have not already qualified will have another chance to do so, with four selected from each category.
UEFA rules dictate that "if fewer than four teams from one league enter the play-offs, the first available slot is allocated to the best-ranked group winner of League D," which is Estonia.
But it also adds that any remaining places are then given to the "best-ranked teams that have not already qualified."
So, for Ireland to make it into the play-offs, the Boys in Green would need to be in the top eight positions in the Nations League (of the teams that failed to secure automatic qualification for Euro 2024).
The Netherlands are one of those teams at the moment, given they're in League A and outside the automatic spots in their Euro qualifier group.
Therefore, automatic qualification for the Dutch ahead of Greece would help Ireland because the Greeks are not one of the teams ahead of the Irish. If both Greece and Ireland miss out on automatic qualification, the Irish would win a play-off spot over the southern Europeans due to their higher ranking in the Nations League.
A win for Ireland in Amsterdam would therefore harm their chances of securing a play-off spot because it could prevent the Netherlands from finishing above Greece.
Ireland are currently fourth in Group B with six points. Leaders France (on 18 points) have already qualified, while Netherlands and Greece (12 apiece) are vying for the second automatic qualification spot.
Belgium, Portugal, Scotland, Spain and Turkey have also qualified for next summer's tournament, with Germany there as hosts.
Ireland, ranked 26th in the Nations League, would go through to the play-offs if results go their way and only four teams above them in League B fail to secure automatic qualification.
But the Boys in Green would not advance to the play-offs if Greece finish above the Dutch, which will make next month's match in Amsterdam an interesting affair.
The Netherlands will want to win it, of course, but Ireland will be better off losing. Make it make sense.
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