Sky's ITV takeover could mean the END of free-to-air football - including the World Cup

A football finance expert has warned that Sky’s proposed takeover of ITV could have major consequences for sports broadcast rights and even threatens the end of free-to-air football.

A limited number of sporting events are protected by a legal requirement for free-to-air coverage in the UK but Professor Rob Wilson, who is director of executive education at University Campus of Football Business, believes that the takeover would change the landscape.

Premier League rights deals are already astronomical and Wilson has calculated a probable upsurge if Sky and ITV merge.

Sky’s proposed ITV takeover could lay the foundations for the demise of free-to-air football

“Talks between ITV and Sky mark a moment where British broadcasting edges closer to a landscape dominated by a few very large players,” he told OLBG. Nothing is agreed, but the intent is clear.”

Wilson says that the new broadcasting giant would have the financial clout to push the domestic Premier League broadcast deal ever higher.

“Premier League rights currently sit at around £1.7 billion per season, with the Champions League adding roughly another £450 to £500 million,” he says.

“A combined Sky and ITV would be able to monetise rights across pay TV, streaming and free to air in a way no rival could match, reducing competitive pressure and giving them licence to bid more aggressively.”

That’s a threat to the BBC and its powerhouse Match of the Day, with the public service broadcaster facing an increasing cost of the highlights package because of the overall rise in prices.

The shifting sands of football broadcast rights could eventually take even the World Cup behind a paywall, according to the UCFB expert.

“The World Cup is currently locked into listed-event regulation, keeping prices relatively low because rights must remain free-to-air,” says Wilson.

“Should free-to-air erode and regulatory protections weaken, a very different market emerges.

“A largely exclusive World Cup becomes a quadrennial subscriber magnet with huge advertising and digital potential.”

Wilson predicts that a World Cup unshackled from free-to-air protections and handed over to a subscription-based broadcaster with all the digital bells and whistles included and full exclusivity granted could net FIFA as much as a cool £1 billion in UK rights money.

“That would make the tournament comparable to a significant slice of Premier League value, something only possible if it moves away from the current BBC-ITV sharing model.”

In FourFourTwo’s opinion, such an outcome would be possible but some degree of public and political appetite can be expected to resist the death of free-to-air World Cup and European Championship coverage.