Have Liverpool’s wheels come off? The warning signs have been there all season

A month ago, Liverpool were still eyeing a quadruple and giving Jurgen Klopp the perfect send-off in what the players have called ‘the last dance’ with the manager. How quickly it can all unravel in football.

A manic defeat against Manchester United in the FA Cup ended the quadruple potential, then exactly three weeks later at Old Trafford a 2-2 draw was damaging not only to the points total in the Premier League title hunt but also in terms of the team’s confidence.

Players admitted that it felt like a defeat after scraping a draw against Erik ten Hag’s side, and that feeling carried over into the Reds’ Europa League quarter-final first leg against Atalanta on Thursday night, suffering their joint-heaviest European home defeat, 3-0.

It all means that, in the last seven games in all competitions, Liverpool have won just three times; those being against Sparta Prague, Sheffield United and Brighton (all at Anfield). That those wins against Sheff United and Brighton were far from convincing underlines how much of a struggle it has been.

And that’s the issue that has plagued Liverpool all season, everything has been much harder than it needed to be.

Klopp’s side have had more shots, more Opta-defined big chances and more ‘expected goals’ than any other side in the Premier League - yet they’re 14th for shot accuracy and 10th for shot conversion and 11th for big chance conversion.

At Old Trafford in both games, it was the failure to be clinical and kill the game that was hugely evident, and in almost every game this season the wastefulness in front of goal has been apparent, making comfortable wins a rarity.

That Klopp’s side have now not kept a clean sheet in eight games in all competitions and just one in 14 means that the attack’s failure to kill games has been exasperated by the defence’s failure to keep them out at the other end.

Liverpool's consistent Issues

It’s those goals against that have been creating the knock-on effect all season, repeatedly going behind in games, just as they were last season and at the end of their last quadruple-chasing campaign two years ago.

Klopp insisted it wasn’t an issue as it spanned over the end of one campaign and the start of another. But two years on and in the 2023/24 season Liverpool have conceded the first goal in 20 of their 50 games, going on to lose six of those and draw five.

Conceding first in 40% of your games will eventually come back to bite you. It’s simply unsustainable, it creates extra physical and mental exhaustion, a toll that now appears to be coming to the fore at exactly the wrong time, a little over a month left of Klopp’s final campaign.

Liverpool have consistently had more difficult games than you’d expect, having nervy, late wins repeatedly, including home games against Luton and Fulham. The old cliche claims that that is the sign of a winning team - just finding a way to wind and grind out a result - but not if that is the majority of your matches. 

When it’s a pattern and not a one-off, it’s actually a sign of an underlying issue and an indicator that you are not at the top level. And therein lies the crux, nobody anticipated Liverpool being title contenders this season; the squad simply isn’t good enough or ready to be.

“Liverpool have been amazing this year,” claimed Steve McManaman post-match for TNT, but can anybody name a game where Liverpool were “amazing” and blew away their opposition?

The Nunez Problem

Against Atalanta, Darwin Nunez again missed a big chance, opting to try to chip the keeper in the 15th minute. He did that at Brentford, scoring what was admittedly a wonderful goal, but also a pretty risky one. “It’s a one in 10, two in 10 finish at best,” remarked Michael Owen afterwards.

Owen, a former Ballon d’Or winner, was certainly more clinical than Nunez. Bob Paisley’s mantra of “If you're in the penalty area and don't know what to do with the ball, put it in the net and we'll discuss the options later,” springs to mind.

“Learning to slot, dink or go around the goalkeeper is a far more productive way to score,” said Owen. “And will increase his chances to four or five in 10, thus massively increasing his end return.”

Nunez toiled for an hour, losing seven out of eight duels before being replaced with Liverpool losing the game and needing goals to get a win - just as he was at Old Trafford four days earlier. A pretty worrying indictment when your £85 million centre-forward is repeatedly being replaced when you’re in a losing position.

Nunez needs to find his scoring boots, and fast. Anything less than a win on Sunday and Klopp’s final season in charge looks less like a last dance and more like a marathon runner being overtaken on the final stretch.

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