Manchester City remain the favourites to win the Premier League according to the stats - but is that right?
Arsenal are top of the Premier League having won every League game in 2024 so far(Image credit: Getty Images)
The popular adage is that we don’t get to the business end of the football season until after Easter. But with that being three weeks away and the top of the Premier League being as close as it is, it feels like we are in the business end of the season right now.
Looking back on the weekend, it is difficult to make a case for any other side other than Arsenal being the winners from this round of games.
A late winner at The Emirates against a tricky Brentford side on Saturday night sent them top of the table and then they were able to sit back and watch their two rivals - Liverpool and Manchester City - battle out a 1-1 draw at Anfield, a result that kept them top.
So after arguably the biggest weekend of the season so far, are we any closer to knowing who will lift the title in May?
With all three teams having played 28 games, Arsenal sit top on goal difference on 64 points ahead of Liverpool and with Manchester City a point behind.
And if it continues to be this close for the remaining 10 games of the season then goal difference could well play a part and so Arsenal are seven goals better off that Liverpool and 11 ahead of Manchester City.
Yet after Sunday’s game Sky Sports showed a graphic with all three side’s remaining fixtures and their chance of winning the league according to stats company Opta.
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They give Manchester City a 46 percent chance of lifting the title, whereas Liverpool are given a 35 percent chance of making it a perfect farewell for Jurgen Klopp and top of the table Arsenal are given just a 19 percent chance of winning the league.
So why is this? After all Arsenal have won all eight games in the Premier League since the turn of the year, and have scored 33 goals in the process - surely they are in the box seat at this stage of the season?
One thing to note is that following the weekend’s results, Arsenal’s chances have increased according to Opta as their chances of winning the league have risen by six percent from 13 percent before the weekend, while Manchester City’s chances are down six percent from 51 percent while Liverpool’s are down a tiny bit but are essentially the same as before the weekend.
Liverpool and Manchester City played out a 1-1 draw at Anfield on Sunday (Image credit: Getty Images)
Arsenal have been perfect so far in 2024 but the feeling is that they will have to go close to replicating that form for the remaining games of the season if they are to win the league.
Opta will have factored in the remaining 10 fixtures for all three title challengers and have deemed that Arsenal have the hardest run-in.
There is one school of thought that says it is harder for London sides to win the league due to the number of derbies they have to play each season - and despite Arsenal’s last two league defeats coming at the hands of West Ham and Fulham - there is nothing to prove that to be true.
That said, of Arsenal’s remaining games, two are against Tottenham and Chelsea which are probably more of the Gunners’ more intense rivalries in the capital, plus trips to Manchester United and Brighton.
The destination of the Premier League trophy is still unknown with 10 games to go with Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal all in the hunt (Image credit: Getty Images)
On that note, Liverpool have to go to both Old Trafford and Goodison Park before the end of the season. City don’t have any intense rivalries in their final games but they do have to play Arsenal at home at the end of the month, as well as play Tottenham away - and they have lost all four Premier League visits to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (although they did win there in the FA Cup this year).
All three sides have to play Tottenham, Aston Villa, Brighton and Wolves before the season is out and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that all four of those sides will be pushing for European places, potentially meaning those games have something riding on them for both sides.
But with the way the fixtures pan out and with their experience of having won the last three league titles, if Manchester City can win their next two games against Arsenal and Aston Villa at home then you imagine it would be tough to stop them - hence the reason Opta has them as favourites.
So if Arsenal are to go all the way and lift the title in May then they will have to do it with the hardest run-in (on paper at least) and in doing so will defy the stats experts and the bookies.
Everyone knows that predictions are a mugs game and they will regularly come back to bite you but using the eye test of watching Arsenal over the past few months, only a fool would look to write them off at this stage of the season.
James Andrew is the editor of FourFourTwo, overseeing both the magazine and website. James is an NCTJ qualified journalist and began his career as a news reporter in regional newspapers in 2006 before moving into sport a year later. In 2011 he started a six year stint on the sports desk at the Daily Mail and MailOnline. James was appointed editor of FourFourTwo in December 2019. Across his career James has interviewed the likes of Franco Baresi, Sir Alex Ferguson, David Beckham and Michael Owen. James has been a Fulham season ticket holder since the mid-1990s and enjoys watching them home and away, through promotion and relegation.
