Last season, much was made of Hugo Ekitike, a standout striker in a faltering Liverpool attack, whose season tragically ended with an achilles tear versus PSG in the Champions League.
Erling Haaland won the Golden Boot (for the third time in four seasons, with only Mohamed Salah able to disrupt his streak) and the Frenchman hit 11 Premier League goals in 28 appearances.
For all the noise surrounding Ekitike, and Haaland’s Golden Boot procession, a certain Brazilian was quietly staking his claim as the Premier League’s next best striker. This season, he will realise it.
Joao Pedro will win the 2026/27 Golden Boot, here's why
Joao Pedro, like his French peer, was equally a standout in a failing Chelsea machine. He ended the season with the Blues’ Player of the Season award, and 15 Premier League goals in 35 appearances.
In all competitions, that total rose to 20, three more than Ekitike’s haul, and he equalled the Frenchman’s assist tally of six.
Despite his season-ending injury, Ekitike made just five fewer appearances than Pedro, and neither striker took penalties, with spot kick responsibilities falling to Salah and Cole Palmer.
Both attackers were clinical in their finishing: Pedro bagged 15 top-flight strikes from an xG of 14.96, and Ekitike struck 11 from an xG of 9.87.
But how will the Brazilian dethrone Haaland, who finished the Premier League season with a whopping 27 goals and was Manchester City’s penalty-taker?
To state the obvious, this isn’t the same Cityzens side that the Norwegian has played in since his debut campaign in 2022/23, when he broke the 38-game goal record.
To state the less obvious, and bear with, Haaland winning the Golden Boot would make for his fourth in five years, and tie him in the standings for most of all time alongside the Premier League’s greatest: Thierry Henry and Salah.
Will the football Gods allow him to tie that record? Both the Liverpool and Arsenal goalscorers played at least eight top-flight seasons to reach four Golden Boots, while Haaland is set to do so in virtually as many years as he has been in England.
FourFourTwo doesn’t believe so, and a historical rewind might just prove it. Many assumed a decade ago that Harry Kane would have broken the Golden Boot record with ease, so, why didn’t he?
The answer is, of course, Salah. The Egyptian steamrolled the league in his debut Liverpool season by, like Haaland, breaking the Premier League goal record. His tally of 32 denied Kane a third Boot, despite the Englishman hitting a staggering 30 Premier League goals — he even swore on his daughter’s life to have one of them recorded in his name.
Five seasons later, Salah was on track to achieve his fourth Golden Boot in 2022/23, so, why didn’t he? Again, the answer is obvious: a man named Erling Haaland arrived.
And when Haaland looked all but certain to three-peat in 2024/25, the Egyptian turned back the clock to claim his fourth, delivering the greatest individual season in Premier League history.
The point is, when goalscorers of Kane, Salah and Haaland’s calibre play in this league, it appears all but inevitable that the award will go to them. But when the Golden Boot record is on the line, someone, somehow, emerges out of nowhere to prevent it from being claimed so easily.
It is Pedro who will be the foil this season — a clinical, multi-faceted goalscorer playing in a Chelsea system that has begun the campaign in rock-and-roll fashion by winning games 4-3 and 3-2.
This is a high-scoring attack, with two top-tier creative players in Palmer and Morgan Rogers, and Pedro is the finishing centre-point. He already has two-in-two, as does Haaland, but this is the season in which the Brazilian won’t slow. The Norwegian, on the other hand, has entered mid-season slumps in each of his previous two campaigns, and life under Maresca won’t be as peachy as it was under Pep Guardiola.
Perhaps hitting 30 goals remains out of reach for the Blues forward, but Haaland will likely be kept in the low 20s as he adapts to a new Manchester City team and system. With Ekitike unlikely to return as the same player post-injury, and Alexander Isak certain to struggle in a Liverpool front-line that requires a season, at minimum, to adapt, Pedro’s path to the Golden Boot appears clear.
Chelsea might be a few seasons away from developing the class required to win a Premier League title, but their clinical Brazilian is already there.
