Are Sunderland the real deal or just lucky with the fixture list? They're about to find out

Last autumn, Sunderland were riding high in the Championship’s automatic promotion places against all expectations.

After a play-off semi-final defeat, Sunderland had fallen away badly the previous campaign and finished 16th; yet there they were, with Christmas approaching, sitting second in the table and just two points behind league leaders Sheffield United – in spite of all the underlying statistics suggesting they were in a false position and it couldn’t last.

And, indeed, it didn’t. Regis Le Bris’ side finished fourth, some 24 points shy of the eventual top two, Leeds and Burnley. Their final points total, 76, was closer to Middlesbrough in 10th (64 points) than it was to the Blades in third (90).

Sunderland haven't played anyone really decent in the Premier League yet - but so what?

But a late turnaround in the play-off final nonetheless saw Sunderland promoted to the Premier League. After two straight years of the newly-elevated sides going straight back down, you would have been forgiven for expecting that Sunderland would struggle.

Yet there they sit, up in seventh place, just a point behind reigning champions Liverpool, and nine clear of the relegation zone. The question Sunderland now need to answer, once again, is just how long they can sustain their brilliant start.

There is a compelling argument that Sunderland have benefited from an extremely generous fixture list so far.

Dysfunctional West Ham were the perfect opponents on the opening day. Brentford have made a stuttering start to life under Keith Andrews. The goal Aston Villa got against Sunderland’s ten men in a 1-1 draw was the first Unai Emery’s side had scored all season. Nottingham Forest have changed their manager twice before the leaves are even yellow. Sunderland’s most recently vanquished opponents, Wolves, are still yet to win a game.

In their opening eight games, Sunderland have faced all of the bottom four, losing away to Burnley, and haven’t yet played any of the sides above them in the table. They also went out of the Carabao Cup on penalties at home to League One Huddersfield.

Yet in spite of all that, there are plenty of good reasons for Sunderland to remain optimistic about their prospects.

For one, they have arguably had the best transfer window of any newly-promoted side in recent Premier League history. Granit Xhaka was an unexpectedly ambitious coup. His midfield partner, Noah Sadiki, is an interception machine.

Best of all, any reasonable poll of Premier League players of the season so far would have to include Nordi Mukiele, whose work both on and off the ball has been outstanding. Robin Roefs, Omar Alderete…the list goes on.

Much of that recruitment has focused on making Sunderland defensively solid, and sensibly so; all of last season’s bottom three conceded in excess of 80 goals. The difference between what is required at the back in the Championship is an absolute gulf below the standard of the Premier League.

Just look at Burnley: their almost-impenetrable defence conceded just 16 goals in 46 games in the Championship last season. They have already conceded 15 in eight in the Premier League so far this term.

Sunderland though? Just six goals conceded, and the numbers suggest that is no massive fluke. According to Understat, their expected goals against ranks as the sixth-best in the division this season at just 9.73 – far better than Chelsea (11.86) and Liverpool (12.21), and not far off Manchester City (8.24).

It’s easy to sniff at the standard of opposition Sunderland have faced so far, but the eye test tells you that they have gone about their business with extreme professionalism and dedication. Their attacking output has been much less impressive – the sixth worst in the division – but it has not mattered because of that defensive meanness.

Those victories over West Ham, Forest and Wolves all came complete with clean sheets, as did their goalless draw away to a bang-in-form Crystal Palace.

Even after Reinildo Mandava’s first-half red card against Villa, Sunderland looked the more likely side to win the game until a rare Roefs error allowed Matty Cash’s speculative long-range effort to find the net.

So…yeah, of course, Sunderland have not really played anybody properly decent. But frankly, so what?

The goal for the Black Cats this season is survival, pure and simple, and nobody’s prospects of staying up are likely to hinge around whether they can get results against Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham or Bournemouth.

Managers like to say there’s no such thing as a free hit in football, but for a club in Sunderland’s situation, that is patently untrue.

Even if we take one or two others out of the picture – like Newcastle, we say nervously – Sunderland still have 72 points to play for just against the division’s 12 bottom sides this season.

40 points is the usual watermark for staying up, so that’s more than enough as long as Sunderland are able to keep getting results against The Rest.

The problem Sunderland have is that they don’t have too many of those games this side of Christmas: their upcoming fixture list reads Chelsea, Everton, Arsenal, Fulham, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle, Brighton.

That run is going to teach us a lot about just where Sunderland’s level actually is, and just how good they actually are. But for now…their fans are enjoying the ride much more than they could possibly have anticipated.