FourFourTwo's half-term report: Which teams have surprised us so far this season?

The final international break of the year gives us a chance to pause for breath and reflect.

With almost one-third of the 2025/26 season already out of the way, league tables are starting to take shape and clubs up and down the country are bracing themselves for the slog of the winter months.

So, it seems as good a time as any to dig out our season predictions - which you can find here - and see which teams in the Premier League and EFL are performing as we expected and who has surprised us - and not necessarily in a good way.

Which teams are performing as expected?

Erling Haaland's goals have fired Manchester City into second in the Premier League - exactly where we predicted they will finish in our season preview.

The Norwegian striker has scored 14 times in 11 league games and if he continues at that rate, you wouldn't bet against Pep Guardiola's side finishing any lower.

The only other top-flight team who sit exactly where we predicted are Aston Villa, who have recovered from taking just three points from their opening five league games to sit sixth.

Several Premier League sides are within two positions of where we expected: leaders Arsenal, who we said will finish third, Chelsea (currently third, predicted fifth), Tottenham Hotspur (now fifth, we said seventh), Manchester United (currently seventh, predicted ninth), Bournemouth (ninth, having been predicted 10th), Crystal Palace (10th, predicted 11th), and 13th-place Everton, who we predict will finish 14th.

Meanwhile, the Championship has lived up to its reputation as the most unpredictable league in the world (more on that later), but three clubs are currently in the position we predict they will finish. Rock-bottom Sheffield Wednesday's ownership issues meant they were an obvious choice for 24th and that's unlikely to change any time soon, having received a 12-point deduction last month that leaves the Owls on minus-four points. We also have Watford and Oxford United to finish in their current positions of 15th and 21st respectively.

In League One, 11th-place Barnsley are the only team who are exactly where we expect them to end up, while another pair of mid-table sides - 12th-place Cambridge United and Oldham Athletic, in 14th - share that honour in League Two.

Interestingly, we have correctly predicted the bottom five teams in League Two as things stand - Accrington Stanley, Harrogate Town, Cheltenham Town, Shrewsbury Town and Newport County - just not in the right order.

Which teams are outperforming expectations?

It will come as no surprise that Sunderland are the Premier League's biggest movers in a positive direction.

The Black Cats were expected to struggle following promotion from the Championship via the play-offs last season, but have produced some stunning results to sit fourth in the table - a whopping 15 places higher than our predicted finishing position of 19th.

The next biggest mover is 12th-place Brentford - four positions above 16th, where we predicted them to end up - who have so far handled the change in head coach from Thomas Frank to Keith Andrews better than many expected.

Cast your eye down the pyramid and several Championship teams could rival Sunderland as the biggest surprise package in the country.

Preston North End avoided relegation only on the final day last season, but there was no hangover going into 2025/26 and Paul Heckingbottom's side are currently fourth - an incredible 18 positions above the 22nd place we predicted for them.

Honourable mentions also go to fifth-place Hull City - 15 positions above their predicted finish of 20th - and Charlton Athletic, who we expected to end up 23rd but sit ninth, despite winning promotion only last term.

There are plenty more shocks in League One, with the biggest rise shared by second-place Bradford City - predicted to finish 18th - and AFC Wimbledon, who are currently seventh despite us saying they will be relegated in 23rd.

Early pace-setters Stevenage (now fifth, but predicted to finish 15th), Mansfield Town (currently eighth, when we said they will end up 20th) and Northampton Town (13th, 11 places higher than the rock-bottom finish that we predicted) have also outperformed expectations considerably.

League Two table-toppers Walsall were predicted to finish 10th after a horror end to last season and their nine-position rise, the joint highest in the division, is shared by eighth-place Crewe Alexandra, predicted to finish 17th.

Who are the biggest underperformers?

Now for the fun bit - unless you support any of these clubs, of course.

Newcastle United have struggled to recreate their Champions League form in a domestic setting and are currently the Premier League's biggest underperformers, sitting 14th after we predicted that they would finish fourth.

Liverpool's struggles are perhaps even more surprising in the wake of last season's Premier League title and a £450million summer spending spree. We predicted them to retain their crown but a run of five defeats in six league games has left Arne Slot's side eighth, with plenty of work to do.

Nottingham Forest sit 19th and are already on their third manager of the season in Sean Dyche, who will hope he can lead them closer to our predicted finishing position of 13th.

Sheffield United were closing in on a return to the Premier League when they led Sunderland 1-0 deep in the second half of last season's Championship play-off final, but things have unravelled spectacularly since losing that game. The Blades' horror start to this term cost head coach Ruben Selles his job and they are 22nd in the second tier, 17 places below the fifth place we predicted.

Norwich City and Southampton also dispensed with their managers after severely below-par starts, with Liam Manning and Will Still getting the boot respectively. The Canaries are 23rd - 16 positions below their predicted finishing position - while we said 17th-place Saints will finish second, which looks a tall order.

In League One, Plymouth Argyle have been the most underwhelming team in the top four divisions according to our predictions. We said Tom Cleverley's side will finish fourth following relegation from the Championship last term, but they head into the international break rock-bottom in 24th.

Blackpool are 21st, putting the Seasiders 13 positions below our prediction of eighth, while it's worth noting that our expected top two of Luton Town and Huddersfield Town are currently ninth and 10th respectively.

Bristol Rovers were expected to challenge after relegation to League Two last season but they sit 17th - 14 places below our predicted finish. The Pirates are not the only fourth-tier team to underperform, though, with Colchester United (predicted seventh, currently 16th) and Chesterfield (we said second, now 10th) also on the naughty step.