Back Spurs to sneak a win at Norwich and the Turin derby to produce goals aplenty
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After a hiatus for the FA Cup, Premier League football returns to your screens this weekend and Bet Butler are here to help you cash in.
The Super Sunday offering sees Champions League-chasing Spurs visit survival-seeking Norwich, with Tim Sherwood's side beaten by Dnipro on Thursday.
Real Sociedad host Barcelona in La Liga looking for revenge over the Catalans, who recently dumped the San Sebastian side out of the Copa del Rey.
Plus, in Italy, it's the small matter of the Turin derby, as league-leaders Juventus welcome neighbours Torino to their shiny new stadium.
We'll also give you the lowdown on the teams missing key men and begging to be taken on - featuring Cagliari, Sampdoria and Hoffenheim.
Real Sociedad vs Barcelona (Sat, 7pm)
Real Sociedad remain in the hunt for another Champions League finish after winning at Malaga. Since the start of last season they’ve lost only 3 of 30 home matches and those were by just a single goal. They got two positive results against the Big Two at home last season and their record of hosting Barca in the past three seasons is a superb 2 wins and 1 draw.
Barcelona’s form has shown a big improvement in recent weeks as Lionel Messi has returned to full fitness and Neymar is back. However, they’ve won just 4 of their last 8 away matches and since 2011/12 only 11 of 20 trips to top-half non Big Two teams, of which just 6 were by more than 1 goal. Real Sociedad held Barcelona to a 1-1 draw when they met here less than two weeks ago in the Copa del Rey. They look good value to get something and they should at least make it competitive so 1.9 on the Asian Handicap +1.5 looks a great price.
Sociedad’s games against the Big Two have been high-scoring in recent years with both teams scoring in 9/10 matches since 2011/12 and the last 7 games all seeing at least 5 goals. Nine of Sociedad’s last 12 home games they’ve conceded in have had at least 4 goals. Similarly, 12 of Barca’s last 20 trips to top-half non-Big Two teams have had more than 3 goals. Over 3.5 Goals looks a decent price at 2.05.
Norwich vs Tottenham (Sun, 4pm)
Spurs kept up the pressure on the top four with an easy win over Newcastle in their last game and they will look to maintain their impressive away form here. Spurs have taken 28 points from a possible 30 this season away to teams currently below the top six. Norwich, meanwhile, have won only 1 of their last 11 matches and are now just one point above the relegation zone.
Norwich’s best chance of success is probably to keep things tight and look to replicate Hull’s point against Spurs a few weeks ago. Their last 6 home matches have featured just 7 goals and they were all level at half-time. Spurs have a superb second-half record but have often been slow starters and 9 of their last 15 trips to bottom-half teams have been all-square after 45 minutes before a second-half record of W12 D3 L0. The half-time draw is an appealing price at 2.30 but we expect Spurs to win so the Draw/Spurs double on the half-time/full-time market looks a great price at 5.50.
‘Unders’ is the favourite in the 2.5 Goals market which is no surprise given Norwich’s record. In contrast, Spurs’ away matches have featured plenty of goals with 7 of the last 8 seeing at least 3 strikes. However, 4 of their 6 trips to the current bottom-half teams this season have had fewer than 3 goals, as have 11 of Norwich’s 16 home games against top-half sides since the start of last season. Under 2.5 Goals looks a decent price at 1.85.
With Emmanuel Adebayor rested for the midweek trip to Ukraine, the in-form striker should be fresh for this game. He’s scored 7 goals in his last 5 away matches in the league, failing to score only once and netting first on 3 occasions, so he looks good value to continue his hot streak this weekend.
Juventus vs Torino (Sun, 5:30pm)
While Juventus continue to dominate Serie A, Torino come into the derby in the hunt for a European place as they trail fifth-placed Inter by just three points. The leaders have won all 12 home games this season as they’ve scored at least 3 goals on 8 occasions. Furthermore, they’ve won their last 11 home matches against top-half teams including 7 wins by more than 1 goal and 8 wins having led by half-time.
Torino have scored in 10 of their last 11 away matches but they’ve travelled to just two of the six teams above them this season and lost both those trips by 2 goals. They picked up just 1 point from their trips to the top six last season and have also lost all 5 Turin derbies since 2008/09 without scoring. It’s hard to see anything but a comfortable Juve win here and 1.85 to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap looks a great price.
However, Torino are a far more adventurous side this season and with Juventus also possessing a much better attack than last year there should be plenty of goals. Ten of Juve’s 12 home games this season have had at least 3 goals while 7 of their last 9 matches home and away have had 4 or more strikes. Juventus could well score 4 themselves but Torino will certainly expect to score and Over 3.5 Goals is good value at 2.70.
Daniele Conti (Cagliari)
Conti has missed just 10 games since the start of last season and without their captain they’ve suffered 6 defeats and conceded 26% more goals per game than when he’s been playing. Inter had a great win last weekend and can be backed at 2.25 here to win by 2 clear goals.
Daniele Gastaldello (Sampdoria)
Gastaldello has missed 10 games since the start of last season and without the centre-back Sampdoria have picked up just 2 points and conceded 68% more goals per game than when he’s been playing. Furthermore, Lorenzo De Silvestri is also suspended having missed just one game all season. Milan have struggled all season but they could still finish fifth with a strong finish and are 2.35 to win this weekend.
Eugen Polanski (Hoffenheim)
Defensive midfielder Polanski has missed 11 games since the start of last season and they’ve conceded 40% more goals per game than with him, including 21 in the last 8 matches he’s missed. Monchengladbach have the second best home record this season and look good value at 1.95 to win.