The evening kick-off on Boxing Day is, on paper, a bit of a mismatch. Arsenal have won five of their last six games and are closing in on Leicester at the top, while Southampton haven’t won since early November and scored just four times in their previous seven.
The most important battle will be between the assist king Mesut Ozil and Southampton’s primary destroyer and expert man-marker, Victor Wanyama.
Ozil has claimed that his assists tally this season is largely because his team-mates have begun to finish their chances, rather than him having created more opportunities. There is some truth in this (Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud are both in good goalscoring form), but more important has been the change in tact from Frenchman Giroud. He has begun to make runs into the channels, creating a through-ball option on the outside of opposition defenders.
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Southampton’s best chance of success is to cut off these passes at the source. Wanyama (2.9 tackles, 2.6 interceptions per match) will be tasked with keeping the German quiet, and his ability to man-mark Ozil (who, drifting around the pitch, must not be allowed to roam between defensive zones) will be crucial.
Go long
At the other end, Southampton’s best chance of scoring will be via the long-ball counter-attack, something Ronald Koeman has focused heavily on this season. Saints win more aerial duels (19.8 per match) than any other team and make the third-most accurate long balls (33.3). Graziano Pelle is an excellent targetman, and the battle for the second ball will be another key tussle to watch out for.
Aaron Ramsey continues to look superb in central midfield, but is prone to moving forward too frequently. His absence from defensive positions could leave Mathieu Flamini over-exposed, and help Steven Davis arrive first to the Pelle knock-down. Flamini made zero tackles and three interceptions against Man City, often finding himself caught between David Silva and Yaya Toure in Ramsey’s absence.
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In both attack and defence, it’s Arsenal’s central midfield who will define the tactical pattern of this contest. Given the Gunners' overwhelming successes in recent weeks, Southampton are unlikely to match the new title favourites.
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