Expected Goals charts football's great data revolution, focussing in particular on the modern day shift to analytical tools increasingly being used by clubs and analysts.
Written by The New York Times' chief soccer correspondent, Rory Smith, the book offers a fresh and very entertaining insight into the oft-fascinating world of football and data.
In today’s game, many clubs pay statisticians vast sums of money to (hopefully) give them an advantage when it comes to the transfer market or analysis of player performance.
Michael Lewis’ 2003 book Moneyball, which showed how analytics transformed baseball, initially inspired some football chiefs to abandon ‘gut instinct’ and gravitate towards a more enlightened player recruitment model.
Suspicion remained, though, and some stories in Expected Goals reflect this: Hendrik Almstadt’s advice to Arsenal to buy the young Kevin De Bruyne fell on deaf ears - the Belgian soon ended up at Chelsea, before a spell at Wolfsburg prompted Manchester City to sign him for more than £50 million.
But Liverpool’s Champions League and Premier League glory under Jurgen Klopp was helped by the cutting edge approach deployed by their ‘transfer committee’, which pitched for Roberto Firmino’s arrival in 2015. After seven seasons at Anfield, the Brazilian is set to depart for free in the summer, though his overall worth to the club in that time has been extremely good value for money.
Clubs ‘doing’ a Moneyball (finding underrated players) include Brighton, who place stock in a stats-based approach to the game, thanks to owner Tony Bloom. The former poker professional has been commended for his running of the south coast club in recent years, his own background in data helping propel Brighton to a consolidatory position in the Premier League.
Brentford, Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig also feature, with their approaches to data uncovered to determine how they manage to unearth new players, define radical tactics and plot their path to glory.
