Manchester City are being predicted to rally in the second half of the season and beat Liverpool to the Premier League title once again.
But there's bad news for the red half of Manchester with a first-ever bottom-half finish forecast for Erik ten Hag's side.
The latest version of OLBG's big results-predicting spreadsheet puts Manchester United a lowly 11th, just behind Wolverhampton Wanderers. If that actually did come to pass, it would be their lowest finish since 1990, and thus of course their lowest-ever Premier League finish.
United have never finished lower than 7th under the top flight's current guise. Liverpool currently hold a five-point advantage over City having played a game more, but Pep Guardiola's side have been predicted to go unbeaten over the rest of the campaign to finish three points ahead of their rivals down the M62.
The rest of the top five is expected to stay as is: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Tottenham, in that order.
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 38 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 93 | 40 | 53 | 87 | 0 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 38 | 25 | 9 | 4 | 80 | 38 | 42 | 84 | 1 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 38 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 75 | 38 | 37 | 80 | -1 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 24 | 6 | 8 | 74 | 48 | 26 | 78 | 0 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 73 | 52 | 21 | 70 | 0 |
| 6 | West Ham United | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 65 | 4 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 61 | 56 | 5 | 60 | 1 |
| 8 | Newcastle | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 68 | 55 | 13 | 55 | -1 |
| 9 | Brighton | 38 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 67 | 61 | 6 | 55 | 2 |
| 10 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 54 | 56 | -2 | 52 | 5 |
| 11 | Manchester United | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 48 | 58 | -10 | 51 | -5 |
| 12 | Fulham | 38 | 14 | 6 | 18 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 48 | -3 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 40 | 3 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 40 | 3 |
| 15 | Everton | 38 | 15 | 4 | 19 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 39 | -1 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 39 | -3 |
| 17 | Brentford | 38 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 35 | -5 |
| 18 | Luton Town | 38 | 7 | 13 | 18 | 43 | 69 | -26 | 34 | -2 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 44 | 79 | -35 | 24 | 0 |
| 20 | Sheffield United | 38 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 31 | 82 | -51 | 18 | 0 |
This version of the forecast does not take any outstanding potential punishments for Nottingham Forest or Everton into account, and as such has picked the current bottom three made up of the newly-promoted trio of Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United for relegation.
If Forest and Everton were hypothetically both deducted ten points as punishment for financial breaches (or ten more points, in Everton's case), the results forecast here would send them both go down in place of Luton and Burnley.
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