Manchester United's £20m Ruben Amorim dilemma revealed as Old Trafford stares down £160m bill

Manchester United's Portuguese coach Ruben Amorim is used to being criticised by now. The 40-year-old has taken charge of 47 matches in the Old Trafford dugout, winning 18 and losing 20.

Man United have won once in five outings this season, fell to defeat against rivals Manchester City and Arsenal as well as exiting the League Cup at the Second Round having lost on penalties to fourth tier Grimsby Town.

As a result, Amorim is the second-most likely manager to be removed from his post, according to bookmakers, with West Ham United's Graham Potter the only Premier League boss seemingly at greater risk of losing his job.

Ruben Amorim sacking would cost Manchester United up to £20 million

Upon arriving at Old Trafford, Amorim signed a contract which runs until the summer of 2027, meaning the club would be required to pay out the remainder of his salary, should they decide to change head coach.

That is likely to total close to £13 million, given Amorim is rumoured to be earning £6.5 million per year at Man United.

Additionally, Amorim's backroom staff would likely depart alongside the Portuguese coach, if he were removed from his post, meaning compensation payments would be required for those individuals too, bringing the exit bill closer to the £20 million mark.

For context, predecessor Erik ten Hag cost Man United a reported £21.4m to replace; £10.4m in compensation and £11m to hire Amorim and his backroom team from Portuguese club Sporting CP.

Man United failed to qualify for European competition in 2025-26 and for each season the club spends outside the UEFA Conference, Europa and Champions Leagues, they lose out on tens of millions of pounds in broadcast, commercial and matchday revenue.

Champions League participation is worth an estimated minimum £80m to clubs who feature in the league phase, while Europa League involvement guarantees a team £20m, mostly in broadcast payments.

Switching managers would cost Man United a pretty penny, but if Amorim does not deliver European football for a second successive season, the decision to retain his services could come to be regarded as an example of the economic phenomenon of the sunk cost fallacy. This is where a person or organisation is reluctant to abandon a strategy because they have invested heavily in it, even though it appears abandonment would be more beneficial in the long-run.

In their current guise, Man United do not look like Champions League contenders, nor do they have Europa League football as a back-door route into Europe's premier club competition for 2026-27.

This means that for the period 2025-2027, the club could realistically lose out on £160m of guaranteed Champions League revenue due to their appointment of Amorim, which greatly supersedes the sum it would cost to make a change in the dugout.

Doing so early enough in the season would theoretically give any new arrival a better prospect of correcting the course.